{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:10.022Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "India exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from India to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "IND",
    "country_name": "India"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ZAF",
    "country_name": "South Africa"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "IND",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "all_history_lane_count": 933,
    "current_lane_count": 890,
    "current_product_count": 890,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2003,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 7997284880.519245,
    "attention_trade_usd": 7841313378.436267,
    "critical_trade_usd": 157075679.1439933,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 3379157255.902505,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 407594123.05431324,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 218431.2212931856,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 4166824629.3159,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 7997284880.519245,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 7997284880.519245,
    "critical_lane_count": 10,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 350,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 433,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 396,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 1,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 425,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 890,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9887417839200577,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 13.502440436663127,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1245.0280911172936,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 23.13838269043194,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 56.32294130165037,
    "top_product_hs6": "271019",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1850442380.4985955,
    "top_product_description": "",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271019",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 9310.9599609375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.07099317759275436,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994,
    "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 98.04969430984117,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 1.9641125893441316,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994,
    "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 284917353.7470541,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 295322210.5806254,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.6518859580622953,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 374664920.1705305,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.86648912518683,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 443714143.7733266,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.4295939879741,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.911926349835781
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 838458565.273103,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 88.96367786315899,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 41.599536468127354
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1318381381.515524,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 57.2387039884434,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 52.101212590944755
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1915168097.636299,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 45.266621972069146,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 62.81754751362425
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2031444040.1325746,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.071317846187152,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.30981552184702
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 2502078139.1254187,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.167465590739567,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.809300262767728
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 1897032658.233237,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.181718045930833,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.3166473346318144
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 3419776403.5899158,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 80.26976967148553,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.95908525644017
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4357283795.936771,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.414289172903406,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.310904784676765
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4852725568.894949,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.370426994454297,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.76353197241959
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 5776363971.184493,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.033394515648915,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.092829324667516
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 5690968702.491621,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.4783567849752544,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.309216998339732
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4150631248.414825,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.066349062900407,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.075976131916448
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 3351110616.4346375,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.26262739638781,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.59769162143421
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4214418254.8170204,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.761836513200077,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.527384480184764
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4028885339.8894405,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.40233749261878,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9874485145371925
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 4227886814.9245586,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.939368044675585,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.054998804287372
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 3554083917.6475596,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.937108223863895,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.522147196487981
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 5994913826.292121,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 68.67676636797427,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.164920610167787
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 8860215176.6241,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.795538574141275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.969647099635342
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 8522227477.912674,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.8146669349875206,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.84695067223631
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "export_value_usd": 8469148155.513795,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.6228339074079714,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.206735801314949
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2655165297.892476,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9112822550282517,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "271012",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11192877591.131302,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 18.972210425004317,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0341433716675819,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870322",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1511357347.421437,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7569736398541052,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1421521846.6090708,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 3.287674914826275,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7851856136459863,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870321",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity not exceeding 1000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 377417108.1836067,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 36.7245528875215,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5094492442501544,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "851712",
      "hs_description": "Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1838931211.6883788,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 12.451388605283437,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0586080902601105,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "100630",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished or glazed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 621578203.4968851,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 40.42738526642008,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5235646207618935,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870410",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of goods",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 344840872.6085567,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 38.495535159601054,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9323962795368009,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 570404881.2547687,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 45.77115862811796,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8325709732689553,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IND",
      "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
      "hs_code": "842959",
      "hs_description": "Mechanical shovels, excavators and shovel loaders: n.e.c. in item no. 8429.50",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 83421501.01439841,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 13.279309085467572,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0480198701039383,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "IND",
    "importer_iso3": "ZAF",
    "distance_km": 8029,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 1,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662,
    "importer_population": 60041.996,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 40,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 3173397.5908170003,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2277.434305882774,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787878,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-ZAF/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-ZAF/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-ZAF/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-ZAF/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}