{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:09.984Z", "seo": { "title": "India exports to China: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from India to China, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "IND", "country_name": "India" }, "importer": { "iso3": "CHN", "country_name": "China" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "all_history_lane_count": 1446, "current_lane_count": 1334, "current_product_count": 1334, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 16017847215.96761, "attention_trade_usd": 9743343043.718964, "critical_trade_usd": 2991321527.3175483, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 11581871415.930843, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 6270769712.258131, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 7667087.516002727, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 8663537978.409449, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 20, "high_attention_lane_count": 271, "high_volatility_lane_count": 943, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 648, "declining_demand_lane_count": 15, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 471, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.3091420023650002, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 38.35703512754925, "product_concentration_hhi": 304.22324440108684, "top1_product_share_pct": 12.21374223818632, "top3_product_share_pct": 22.18141701378932, "top_product_hs6": "260111", "top_product_trade_usd": 1956378571.0647874, "top_product_description": "Iron ores and concentrates: non-agglomerated", "top_attention_product_hs6": "260111", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 3785.01318359375, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.002300000051036477, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 30.07776062141414, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 11.164786621212123, "tariff_advantage_pp": 19.025088946666664, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 17734062.645370997, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 12556, "buyer_population_latest": 1412359.985, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.1812362915018895, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.16286575688667, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.01746865158438471, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 44.900000000000006, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 46.43, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 60.828043321615525, "critical_trade_share_pct": 18.67492857801521, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 17734062.645370997, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 12556, "buyer_population_2024": 1412359.985 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 379273463.21068287, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 701036301.214899, "yoy_growth_pct": 84.83663351513728, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 846292768.885132, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.720249068201312, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 689905307.3458253, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.479120617481403, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.070955187211894 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 725526546.3495053, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.163206982813406, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.1511753227518184 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 1095920125.2066667, "yoy_growth_pct": 51.051692142872064, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.99822460122548 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 1355177009.5207043, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.656549264039416, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.23782398480956 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 1967893210.705306, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.21300146622955, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.45991836004947 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 3508119620.1431427, "yoy_growth_pct": 78.26778409819349, "cagr_3y_pct": 47.37771895401532 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 5692689765.490206, "yoy_growth_pct": 62.271825989158415, "cagr_3y_pct": 61.35180588193532 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 8114802084.794205, "yoy_growth_pct": 42.54776597852119, "cagr_3y_pct": 60.358555280192846 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 8725652618.430202, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.527608526406704, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.49018689427677 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 11582108227.837856, "yoy_growth_pct": 32.7362976079782, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.713640190819852 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 14503680719.354664, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.22487645638418, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.35754049922596 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 11964813058.582607, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.504988629431317, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.097085562264407 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 18602869130.10459, "yoy_growth_pct": 55.479814344114374, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.110932030904348 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 20847029829.862267, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.063519256424815, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.855306788423837 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 16674504472.277262, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.01496324242834, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.698928320982604 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 16605654452.909319, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.4129059396182466, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.714988073704417 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 15069668199.727203, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.249778486827475, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.253021918675476 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 11804160615.394714, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.66940599522691, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.876125610285559 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 10841780815.857094, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.152886349940946, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.247591241393009 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 14945714864.084349, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.85295163157032, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.27493361470848354 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 18171239009.327454, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.581598301425366, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.464853853217274 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 17954340904.97709, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.1936340952811708, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.31040689193666 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 20228307276.703224, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.6652734498083, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.615066105652726 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 26149700608.558872, "yoy_growth_pct": 29.272806917834735, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.900030709544419 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 16998671695.808472, "yoy_growth_pct": -34.99477508264566, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.8067036068775577 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 17520061661.263332, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.067239457206683, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.678245063554176 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 16353116968.945728, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.6606197790827775, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.484545670607707 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "260111", "hs_description": "Iron ores and concentrates: non-agglomerated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 110980291468.60649, "current_below_peak_pct": 76.86544936753143, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1798533117285233, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "260112", "hs_description": "Iron ores and concentrates: agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2305687616.884735, "current_below_peak_pct": 43.01345820856263, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1966290577993772, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10537862495.74553, "current_below_peak_pct": 54.072683694723, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.324056639189662, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "030617", "hs_description": "Crustaceans: frozen, shrimps and prawns, excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking: in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4454182131.871879, "current_below_peak_pct": 18.57125407160524, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6912652908028232, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "710239", "hs_description": "Diamonds: non-industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2800689689.4463615, "current_below_peak_pct": 71.04723197877868, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9402306488130523, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "151530", "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: castor oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 500168122.48829395, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8841090579925127, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "670300", "hs_description": "Human hair, dressed, thinned, bleached or otherwise worked: wool or other animal hair or other textile materials, prepared for use in making wigs or the like", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1026861518.9396639, "current_below_peak_pct": 4.467871170160274, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9907348878646641, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "090421", "hs_description": "Spices: fruits of the genus Capsicum or Pimenta, dried, neither crushed nor ground", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 470768889.14134115, "current_below_peak_pct": 3.806877834651258, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9135974267457414, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "851762", "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 8993303487.788406, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3040675449938757, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "150810", "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: ground-nut oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 410639949.18976367, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4644975661043076, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "IND", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "distance_km": 4252, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 17734062.645370997, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12556.33325336033, "importer_population": 1412359.985, "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 3173397.5908170003, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2277.434305882774, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 30.07776062141414, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 11.164786621212123, "tariff_advantage_pp": 19.025088946666664 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-CHN/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-CHN/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-CHN/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-CHN/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IND-CHN/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }