{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.596Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Indonesia exports to Nepal: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Indonesia to Nepal, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "IDN",
    "country_name": "Indonesia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "NPL",
    "country_name": "Nepal"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
    "importer_iso3": "NPL",
    "all_history_lane_count": 47,
    "current_lane_count": 24,
    "current_product_count": 24,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 30370793.91535768,
    "attention_trade_usd": 26967567.5031648,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 15068562.000639744,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 1944764.1489901566,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 30370793.91535768,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 6,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 15,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 9,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 24,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8942084229449186,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 11.43363221737298,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1737.0331027529937,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 26.140319918624126,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 66.84526110248893,
    "top_product_hs6": "270119",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 7939022.691300527,
    "top_product_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "270119",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 4414.77490234375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 22.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 36288.830373000004,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 1223,
    "buyer_population_latest": 29674.919,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.652648953830973,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.7645171101378105,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.8559109302753942,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 33.006,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.022,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 88.7944107695125,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 36288.830373000004,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 1223,
    "buyer_population_2024": 29674.919
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 12606796.438979004,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 11350752.175360966,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.963231100761405,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 13625108.194362473,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 20.03705114748644,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 11389971.072997218,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.40454585373543,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.3268298856444445
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 12483315.143892912,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.59918215672857,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.2210876455382564
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 13321802.877409596,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.71686746550566,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.7476006027789417
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 15694161.708620321,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.808091390044844,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.2769381673268
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 16627262.700509205,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.945529358069246,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.026409621599598
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 18158147.706707276,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.207077760016325,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.875650409687676
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 19648389.54764335,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.207014641617905,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.77787391819369
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 28356106.133499086,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 44.3177114579355,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.474515565068494
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 21202289.76670514,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -25.228486355334358,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.302110051037223
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 10273155.07534563,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.546954652614914,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.438855390308074
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 12319736.031886358,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.921639861665106,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -24.261226181384043
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 32982453.15821182,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 167.72045336722732,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.86885879433848
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 32891910.673703067,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.27451713210789874,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 47.38787343450896
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 36289938.09021185,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.33089093004711,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.34909041527892
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 24019154.54909866,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.81318400326199,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.031270536972691
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 45147252.97524905,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 87.96353919519304,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.134118585118413
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 58141169.04282493,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.78118869092543,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.012568059374722
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 54263553.1473278,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.669311882327311,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.2150057214591
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 39771819.87666332,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -26.706200442346308,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.1376559018264985
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 37895744.156412356,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.717098000717279,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.29671346739103
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 46679582.131978676,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.17895629470046,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.894366232380564
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 80455324.25488831,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 72.35656486258681,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.471627858380064
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 38068216.402256094,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -52.684030852137,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.1514780930687465
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 56185411.52454343,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.591394697476886,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.3731945993616534
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 71738245.41802439,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.6812672034751,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.7504619800978967
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 60651715.58437938,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.454141328719329,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.795699876477997
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "export_value_usd": 67793700.62180403,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.775404815200385,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.460522094914123
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "270119",
      "hs_description": "Coal: (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 173294084.03512433,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.2910248608887589,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "720719",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel, containing by weight less than 0.25% of carbon, other than rectangular or square cross-section",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 192172311.94011587,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 2.170518355607071,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2529505675785642,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "721391",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.s. in heading no. 7213, of circular cross-section measuring less than 14mm in diameter",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 70112070.93541843,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 19.14167048919371,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.49863684135343267,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "151190",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13936709.52917945,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.63083587297254,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "480257",
      "hs_description": "Uncoated paper and paperboard (not 4801 or 4803): printing, writing or graphic, 10% or less by weight of mechanical or chemi-mechanical processed fibre, weight 40-150g/m2, n.e.c. in item no. 4802.55 or 4802.56",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11138212.016168758,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 41.29728010990731,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5195284012512542,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "852872",
      "hs_description": "Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording or reproducing apparatus: incorporating a colour video display or screen",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10377027.306987567,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 12.78716259610418,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.575276560537959,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "480255",
      "hs_description": "Paper and paperboard: uncoated, for printing & writing, containing no, or not more than 10% by weight of total fibres obtained by mechanical or chemi-mechanical process, weighing 40g/m2 to 150g/m2, in rolls",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14832889.902259413,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 55.83193189544926,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.100372793326287,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "270112",
      "hs_description": "Coal: bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15441768.079567326,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.09740807848123548,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "300220",
      "hs_description": "Vaccines: for human medicine",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 84998266.91800492,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 66.93354507323393,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.944610296861075,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
      "importer_iso3": "NPL",
      "hs_code": "870322",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21889936.366261337,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 85.49273695303658,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2527984656568862,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "IDN",
    "importer_iso3": "NPL",
    "distance_km": 4409,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 36288.830373000004,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1222.8788349177971,
    "importer_population": 29674.919,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 22.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 20.2,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 1186092.99132,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4291.8125855504495,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 17.188381769090913,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IDN-NPL/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IDN-NPL/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IDN-NPL/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IDN-NPL/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/IDN-NPL/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}