{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.416Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Hong Kong exports to China: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Hong Kong to China, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "HKG",
    "country_name": "Hong Kong"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "CHN",
    "country_name": "China"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
    "importer_iso3": "CHN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 1480,
    "current_lane_count": 1369,
    "current_product_count": 1369,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 48103551509.36708,
    "attention_trade_usd": 10347608249.587524,
    "critical_trade_usd": 759805019.1305333,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 26724743423.478237,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 6657444789.648135,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 37447656.80279474,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 12559724886.735268,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 11,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 200,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 499,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1166,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 23,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 456,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0086345699997856,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 31.21103496477244,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1186.5083731681066,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 30.48968689280501,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 47.361397655849444,
    "top_product_hs6": "710812",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 14666622239.525202,
    "top_product_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "710813",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1976.2490234375,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.8365903496742249,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 29.436133136606063,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.9682631558387876,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 29.22161241204,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 17734062.645370997,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 12556,
    "buyer_population_latest": 1412359.985,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.1812362915018895,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.16286575688667,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.01746865158438471,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 44.900000000000006,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 46.43,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 21.511110770215293,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 1.5795195890735396,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 17734062.645370997,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 12556,
    "buyer_population_2024": 1412359.985
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 23028739697.4428,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 23419309124.117416,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.6960086909054262,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 23829668650.39685,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.7522272928915728,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 21795219332.966457,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.537463727581084,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.8183429296266818
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 21576633263.948364,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.0029083244299852,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.694691561431839
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 23518123057.05471,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.99811277021756,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.43770820107019714
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 23437860995.76717,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.34127749520157513,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.4516389028397256
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 23957819145.11436,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.218453934175546,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.5510564603128847
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 25620889988.249817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.9416620647401395,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.895690140440288
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 27709669206.768753,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.152641143523454,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.7396306354449145
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 31526897701.827763,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.775799583080417,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.583369927204854
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 34376422755.21686,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.038393438958291,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.294914907297791
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 38685268490.90607,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.534305172970072,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.764726073278698
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 39362877047.989975,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.7515932640953302,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.6800376432347495
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 31568555868.73186,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.801197889462006,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8003552027675016
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 42180068240.70372,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.614183734272075,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.9249238174748227
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 62454893806.299614,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.06731333362497,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.634369729939415
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 69810295393.29982,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.777142092039373,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 30.28315091912075
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 68762322237.75835,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.5011727849558065,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.692219318393022
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 56335151806.204285,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.072645057833913,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.3791178614933304
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 48067868585.19812,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.675176964901116,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.696389077751556
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 46376389213.057594,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.518939828052614,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.30352595585764
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 38233558315.549286,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.558139035144283,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.12033016455406
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 40111947095.710594,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.912932154152605,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.853041810398063
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 39054067851.23503,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.6373171114116523,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.567146132127054
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 37147093971.5553,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.882907171011707,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9563336306831371
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 52163823297.33038,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 40.4250446542975,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.152048430713533
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 42570526276.76006,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.39070914317218,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.91552983279868
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 43342615408.371925,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.8136706288109927,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.276173208039614
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 48275939948.68271,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.382157015282178,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.548818749491566
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "710812",
      "hs_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 80847019955.26123,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 34.95046749215873,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1764819102379906,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "847330",
      "hs_description": "Machines: parts and accessories of automatic data processing, magnetic or optical readers, digital processing units",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21271244130.617207,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 26.43502887591301,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.511942678766008,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "854231",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: processors and controllers, whether or not combined with memories, converters, logic circuits, amplifiers, clock and timing circuits, or other circuits",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 157957471563.19238,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6305552923967701,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "854239",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: n.e.c. in heading no. 8542",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 81807010253.73093,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 49.89034078415072,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5435359569328756,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "710813",
      "hs_description": "Metals: gold, semi-manufactured",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17631171594.94817,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3931102444320533,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "852351",
      "hs_description": "Semiconductor media: solid-state non-volatile storage devices, whether or not recorded, excluding products of Chapter 37",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 7533443055.501303,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 9.06421066031192,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2433908585701374,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "854232",
      "hs_description": "Electronic integrated circuits: memories",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 80551589606.64478,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 44.64044182736146,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7705980875938245,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "841112",
      "hs_description": "Turbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kN",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5249077199.886527,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 10.101755169954139,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3051825433178936,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "847180",
      "hs_description": "Data processing machines: automatic, units thereof n.e.s. in heading no. 8471",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15659176012.492014,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7016679462325426,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "854290",
      "hs_description": "Parts of electronic integrated circuits",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2897240677.77034,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 26.87181105100891,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8924922508391714,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "HKG",
    "importer_iso3": "CHN",
    "distance_km": 1226,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 1,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 17734062.645370997,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12556.33325336033,
    "importer_population": 1412359.985,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 368139.247671,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 49660.63423817296,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 29.436133136606063,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878786,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.9682631558387876,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 29.22161241204
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/HKG-CHN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/HKG-CHN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/HKG-CHN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/HKG-CHN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/HKG-CHN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}