{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.523Z", "seo": { "title": "Guatemala exports to the Philippines: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Guatemala to the Philippines, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "GTM", "country_name": "Guatemala" }, "importer": { "iso3": "PHL", "country_name": "Philippines" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "all_history_lane_count": 27, "current_lane_count": 10, "current_product_count": 10, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 14128790.52674492, "attention_trade_usd": 10445672.42617282, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 10591322.228061639, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 464521.8136252187, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 8534050.97507515, "access_friction_trade_usd": 14128790.52674492, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 2, "high_volatility_lane_count": 3, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 2, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 5, "access_friction_lane_count": 10, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0056060976183827, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 7.057559057174944, "product_concentration_hhi": 3742.704261333117, "top1_product_share_pct": 56.53092781802768, "top3_product_share_pct": 88.55617221255538, "top_product_hs6": "170310", "top_product_trade_usd": 7987136.374234503, "top_product_description": "Sugars: molasses, from sugar cane, resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar", "top_attention_product_hs6": "170310", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 15279.10546875, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.02579999901354313, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 19.392619136161617, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 19.392619136161617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 33, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 394086.419343, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 3549, "buyer_population_latest": 111046.913, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.14271163092057, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.220520105972713, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.893418793085976, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.322000000000003, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 15.036000000000001, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 73.93182315499556, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 394086.419343, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 3549, "buyer_population_2024": 111046.913 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 250730.20861964856, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 1072828.6141265254, "yoy_growth_pct": 327.88167410412814, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 165727.77311429262, "yoy_growth_pct": -84.55226017165614, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 67041.89624194207, "yoy_growth_pct": -59.5469757529975, "cagr_3y_pct": -35.57616963894088 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 196672.20627286084, "yoy_growth_pct": 193.35716514208735, "cagr_3y_pct": -43.192691412403065 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 24051.15888104282, "yoy_growth_pct": -87.77094164099908, "cagr_3y_pct": -47.44909041307245 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 112865.76465450366, "yoy_growth_pct": 369.273706155859, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.961193557977786 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 394270.56131391804, "yoy_growth_pct": 249.32697485444763, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.090912350694385 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 23266.289760708572, "yoy_growth_pct": -94.09890262078584, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.0998291686294848 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 86369.4640477272, "yoy_growth_pct": 271.22147508703955, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.532670648229512 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 22584.300980619806, "yoy_growth_pct": -73.85152121803156, "cagr_3y_pct": -61.451800262325825 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 222076.61224478623, "yoy_growth_pct": 883.3229393965132, "cagr_3y_pct": 112.12502038303694 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 364541.81667893694, "yoy_growth_pct": 64.1513768577832, "cagr_3y_pct": 61.60782162948468 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 476697.6166687706, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.76623719374634, "cagr_3y_pct": 176.36228565687477 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 118731.4184196834, "yoy_growth_pct": -75.09292803907955, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.83771275030538 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 33305533.913646918, "yoy_growth_pct": 27951.154746522843, "cagr_3y_pct": 350.39097782393196 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 225019.29148524805, "yoy_growth_pct": -99.32437866911647, "cagr_3y_pct": -22.13799359128479 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 377083.7281280953, "yoy_growth_pct": 67.5783998959113, "cagr_3y_pct": 46.990989016350014 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 3693203.567806329, "yoy_growth_pct": 879.4120754401124, "cagr_3y_pct": -51.957129419835745 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 395093.7085307513, "yoy_growth_pct": -89.30214104700903, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.64059034417913 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 1047896.568506407, "yoy_growth_pct": 165.22734882396796, "cagr_3y_pct": 40.5918703848233 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 1975909.6525274375, "yoy_growth_pct": 88.55960711310954, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.818959735389296 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 1711903.9166024115, "yoy_growth_pct": -13.361225073592276, "cagr_3y_pct": 63.02708272406501 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 2740356.9603357064, "yoy_growth_pct": 60.07656351265609, "cagr_3y_pct": 37.77261656872128 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 3834995.5515435915, "yoy_growth_pct": 39.94510959892563, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.738139044894414 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 5888335.883845108, "yoy_growth_pct": 53.54218289705821, "cagr_3y_pct": 50.95160320471839 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 5419695.5795307765, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.958790285725126, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.52279038314589 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 3222670.864456048, "yoy_growth_pct": -40.537788199257896, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.633677786328994 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 5141594.696092617, "yoy_growth_pct": 59.544517958723134, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.41969297323751 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "export_value_usd": 14529748.326146957, "yoy_growth_pct": 182.59225366769806, "cagr_3y_pct": 38.91881376959032 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "170310", "hs_description": "Sugars: molasses, from sugar cane, resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 155574920.17493698, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1459269458624495, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "380891", "hs_description": "Insecticides: not containing substances of 3808.50: put up in forms or packings for retail sale or as preparations or articles", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 143362047.5047549, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0628669031313207, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "310590", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.s. in heading no. 3105", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10055798.28722189, "current_below_peak_pct": 31.699178048150937, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.814165507005232, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "240120", "hs_description": "Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 156739376.82454386, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "220710", "hs_description": "Undenatured ethyl alcohol: of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80% vol. or higher", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 220591122.73057362, "current_below_peak_pct": 83.16216976044332, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7117743421795235, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "170490", "hs_description": "Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoa", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 162524156.1015405, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7739092032016723, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "610520", "hs_description": "Shirts: men's or boys', of man-made fibres, knitted or crocheted", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16509091.555175701, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0781287071024974, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "390190", "hs_description": "Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, n.e.c. in heading no. 3901", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21247048.50922145, "current_below_peak_pct": 50.064614787698794, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4474805019308357, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "610990", "hs_description": "T-shirts, singlets and other vests: of textile materials (other than cotton), knitted or crocheted", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 60626380.21283997, "current_below_peak_pct": 4.172011492111275, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9776971274668226, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "hs_code": "190410", "hs_description": "Food preparations: obtained by the swelling or roasting of cereals or cereal products", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19512782.460739605, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "GTM", "importer_iso3": "PHL", "distance_km": 15280, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 394086.419343, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 3548.828226706311, "importer_population": 111046.913, "importer_biz_entry_days": 33, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 23.3, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 85986.321551, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 5025.575278874668, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 19.392619136161617, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 19.392619136161617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-PHL/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-PHL/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-PHL/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-PHL/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-PHL/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }