{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.530Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Guatemala exports to Germany: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Guatemala to Germany, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "GTM",
    "country_name": "Guatemala"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "DEU",
    "country_name": "Germany"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "all_history_lane_count": 61,
    "current_lane_count": 30,
    "current_product_count": 30,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 133700880.69850266,
    "attention_trade_usd": 8388966.503172811,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 49301719.200203605,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 83209663.78400102,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2914575.669204746,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 2,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 10,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 15,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 6,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8226809191203911,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 40.32309331978923,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1771.8180025783208,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 25.2518873456387,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 70.73999523455518,
    "top_product_hs6": "090111",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 33761995.774112694,
    "top_product_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "220840",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 9256.5908203125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.03440000116825104,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.3707888605123457,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.8782636827160495,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.0957343845913083,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.782529298124741,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 50802,
    "buyer_population_latest": 83129.288,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.422772294996279,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3176380750794765,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.10175824948728263,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.237999999999996,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 27.802,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 6.274428754205477,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 4223116.205969,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 50802,
    "buyer_population_2024": 83129.288
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 136467496.58016613,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 113918178.25009862,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.523581728357705,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 125377847.96960615,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.059561955378804,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 115661934.92016429,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.7493059633605865,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.364573684631047
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 105099163.39855547,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.132452719989315,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.6501225227619774
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 110497640.92702118,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.136556137933912,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.123817888443271
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 69931098.37405829,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.7125869951878,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.440975262493007
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 54670849.65370894,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.821834741852562,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.576027420829433
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 54357660.67901124,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.5728628266827296,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.05900718912881
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 57817870.41668761,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.3656340145124,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.143595295986959
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 71634172.7058104,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.89624901358365,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.426239682295456
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 73564649.61602436,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.6949105954529706,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.612142424112104
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 82676758.02786715,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.386531383489285,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.661046836947643
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 93197578.27401441,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.725245277035535,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.167858896039572
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 80172027.77918929,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.97627571022083,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.9084963389375496
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 96069336.79440656,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.82899703996739,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.131723630174112
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 134348906.68520373,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 39.84577303028276,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.964808311686514
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 128657213.93519022,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.2365009812471826,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.07668709421275
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 99870763.30233812,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.374532878780496,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.3019624818092268
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 133466008.454698,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.6387187215714,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.21953766663356244
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 101995876.99216047,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.57913586156235,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.448635788921032
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 149986858.7847063,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.05188406413181,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.517435400878774
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 138506798.8198271,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.6540438661748755,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.2434198506443783
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 114467152.68127859,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.356293224146967,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.92006774709317
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 110122301.89683512,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.7957184071322536,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.78598248670245
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 122408725.62619033,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.157071290486996,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.034802473456867
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 159924689.5072283,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 30.64811245205148,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.792210940038883
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 191903138.5486165,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.995942552661838,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.337854878645057
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 176561279.27236784,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.994584868325106,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.98679687038784
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "export_value_usd": 149895418.1098388,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.102893042247157,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1357030405237953
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "090111",
      "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4251538917.3834057,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 66.45660648983633,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4196123319167056,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "080390",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: bananas, other than plantains, fresh or dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 932574797.2526557,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0911487478934454,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "151110",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 291086253.1102775,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 60.045284699196856,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7770979483285114,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "240120",
      "hs_description": "Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 561528135.6705703,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 56.68923023623822,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.437982716601163,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "220840",
      "hs_description": "Rum and other spirits obtained by distilling fermented sugar-cane products",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 140373080.74273834,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.00472816835523,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0699935598394215,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "120740",
      "hs_description": "Oil seeds: sesamum seeds, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 97829449.21907607,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 13.428229631500194,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7958115627303174,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "170310",
      "hs_description": "Sugars: molasses, from sugar cane, resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11872329.298435532,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3777451113481458,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "080440",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: avocados, fresh or dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 515944340.8015238,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8347148599695733,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "040900",
      "hs_description": "Honey: natural",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 245685436.961818,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 54.551779099966154,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6459663084351184,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
      "importer_iso3": "DEU",
      "hs_code": "220710",
      "hs_description": "Undenatured ethyl alcohol: of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80% vol. or higher",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1045228824.7638203,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 81.3977715688952,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.407576026172689,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "GTM",
    "importer_iso3": "DEU",
    "distance_km": 9647,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783,
    "importer_population": 83129.288,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 6.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 85986.321551,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 5025.575278874668,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 1.3707888605123457,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.8782636827160495,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.0957343845913083,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.782529298124741
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-DEU/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-DEU/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-DEU/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-DEU/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GTM-DEU/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}