{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:13.142Z", "seo": { "title": "United Kingdom exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from United Kingdom to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "GBR", "country_name": "United Kingdom" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "all_history_lane_count": 886, "current_lane_count": 856, "current_product_count": 856, "first_observed_last_year": 2005, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 1722591212.41149, "attention_trade_usd": 1033641936.6212364, "critical_trade_usd": 131973618.73904511, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 312302891.81076884, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 804882723.9476179, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 3467767.0839485307, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 548600672.0156969, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 1722591212.41149, "critical_lane_count": 4, "high_attention_lane_count": 182, "high_volatility_lane_count": 226, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 610, "declining_demand_lane_count": 2, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 379, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7900157318268611, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 48.041931045037146, "product_concentration_hhi": 116.09452499080854, "top1_product_share_pct": 4.781114430251652, "top3_product_share_pct": 13.600253451228749, "top_product_hs6": "220830", "top_product_trade_usd": 82359057.03085263, "top_product_description": "Whiskies", "top_attention_product_hs6": "220830", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 9681.689453125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.2870999872684479, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.824198576107072, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 8.401733979616163, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.9297414191717177, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994, "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 60.005062673820355, "critical_trade_share_pct": 7.661342853032009, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994, "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2214505020.124628, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2134875074.7625763, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.5958349445317728, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2337576678.0854154, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.494775863893668, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2897376876.327898, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.94788600906923, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.372827647297921 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3322514978.7940116, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.673206856159094, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.886138989396393 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3411422328.9943585, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.6759051732738293, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.428765992587689 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3704274029.0106835, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.584445775807946, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.534057444349962 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4165081033.0799856, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.439873520706346, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.824843352972266 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4770421249.051903, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.533696011294195, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.825388166516682 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2970165652.157691, "yoy_growth_pct": -37.73787476843903, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.097830730575372 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4149676270.1626096, "yoy_growth_pct": 39.711947283076874, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.12343732474584534 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5969193499.685474, "yoy_growth_pct": 43.847209060758004, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.758856837175898 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 4751107751.500427, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.406203086719, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.95121449995454 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3870264324.497144, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.53974847708111, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.296796611312346 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3682823035.284425, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.843113376683217, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.868870050130667 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3108530169.767707, "yoy_growth_pct": -15.593821913638738, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.186605972129772 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2475157150.9448147, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.375321590339357, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.843631764386666 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2676634129.8044033, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.139967144416715, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.091092573371663 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2830147059.6124897, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.735297480470525, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.07898089051859 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2689903189.2650933, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.955356290446577, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.812193262598761 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1685766272.8360963, "yoy_growth_pct": -37.32985337302554, "cagr_3y_pct": -14.282509146841472 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1889494767.445263, "yoy_growth_pct": 12.085215957394757, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.599839484774744 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2092500151.5564568, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.743897660308011, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.030685505496503 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2146586126.7966456, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.5847537071841176, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.388611420768633 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 1969515567.068213, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.248938047162135, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.3922066089226082 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "220830", "hs_description": "Whiskies", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 168549651.0094045, "current_below_peak_pct": 68.53852169739186, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4627765727254169, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2655165297.892476, "current_below_peak_pct": 40.467510029241524, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9618497771279225, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1421521846.6090708, "current_below_peak_pct": 48.70639123144866, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.34614513976187566, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11192877591.131302, "current_below_peak_pct": 88.16022034021093, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9292980305151106, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "870410", "hs_description": "Vehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of goods", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 344840872.6085567, "current_below_peak_pct": 76.34284983639348, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7587427406293457, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "870350", "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel) and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 92121521.38138704, "current_below_peak_pct": 28.315723928610932, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.3948692513140495, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "870120", "hs_description": "Tractors: road, for semi-trailers", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 778142873.9944189, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7224446503101807, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "851762", "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 960758128.5896409, "current_below_peak_pct": 25.983619571701045, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.30821557076837763, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "490199", "hs_description": "Printed matter: books, brochures, leaflets and similar printed matter n.e.c. in item no. 4901.10 or 4901.91", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 73029127.22992252, "current_below_peak_pct": 63.89082463283202, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3878101520444855, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "840991", "hs_description": "Engines: parts, suitable for use solely or principally with spark-ignition internal combustion piston engines (for other than aircraft)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 137972259.52026916, "current_below_peak_pct": 17.500744347935978, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9316192471366181, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened", "risk_driver_labels": [ "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "GBR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "distance_km": 9039, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 1, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "importer_population": 60041.996, "importer_biz_entry_days": 40, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 3186859.739185, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 47334.35531498716, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.824198576107072, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.33147539878788, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 8.401733979616163, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.9297414191717177 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GBR-ZAF/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GBR-ZAF/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GBR-ZAF/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GBR-ZAF/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/GBR-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }