{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:20.772Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Ethiopia exports to Sri Lanka: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Ethiopia to Sri Lanka, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ETH",
    "country_name": "Ethiopia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "LKA",
    "country_name": "Sri Lanka"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
    "importer_iso3": "LKA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 7,
    "current_lane_count": 1,
    "current_product_count": 1,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2016,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 130232.98287224086,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 130232.98287224086,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 130232.98287224086,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 0,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8432203863508583,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 54.7786350533653,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 10000,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 100,
    "top_product_hs6": "090931",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 130232.98287224086,
    "top_product_description": "Spices: cumin seeds, neither crushed nor ground",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 4526.70556640625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 21.97737046626262,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 21.97737046626262,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 84518.83039300001,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 3815,
    "buyer_population_latest": 22156,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 2.1452073861579324,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 2.039656303460391,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.1034412369869564,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 29.916000000000004,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.772,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 84518.83039300001,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 3815,
    "buyer_population_2024": 22156
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 33587.406062658636,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 32499.714323490007,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.238391607674307,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 32788.78351569392,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.8894514866396142,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 5675.241567977091,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -82.69151533096459,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -44.71559636816559
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 98225.16807329442,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1630.7662924435874,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.58206136623011
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 124025.35076863223,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.26636655494041,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 55.80990156691976
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 206688.34092457435,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 66.65007568505001,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 231.4697308898066
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 12001.628979504332,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -94.19336914418214,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -50.37820479048434
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 116821.94420053858,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 873.3840664466477,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.9747432325428305
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 822316.3829255854,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 603.9057503733911,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 58.45562271457014
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 147766.41541950512,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -82.03046680235275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 130.91129688957182
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 5531.476572370084,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -96.25660773006751,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -63.82247248013476
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 38839.689565503606,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 602.1577160700489,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -63.8524442861494
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 269066.086564006,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 592.7606517302945,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.112767696539535
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 147989.16277414552,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -44.99895372769635,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 199.08613369339574
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 527593.0766609409,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 256.5079136680636,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 138.6022012273545
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 880919.3961469681,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 66.9694761201526,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 48.488357525705396
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 999050.2210400926,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.409947085943852,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 88.99593748221666
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1131769.2773041956,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.2845229868356,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.969278688174693
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1123057.5247239564,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.7697463391999837,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.431452778769888
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 757039.6376316522,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -32.591196713834414,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.83171896337258
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 962551.3492793802,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.146757109133368,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.255210432022306
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1189585.7194057298,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.58672815702978,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.9368588076759785
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 660483.2834409432,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -44.477873879412854,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.446249682348302
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 453837.6501743386,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.287034577171358,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -22.167877916310708
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 220334.73242653135,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.45075946389832,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -42.997258899508026
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 242856.15946234512,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.221460224535118,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -28.358869430709255
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 326550.9651373864,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.4627065915609,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.39130555367035
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "hs_code": "090931",
      "hs_description": "Spices: cumin seeds, neither crushed nor ground",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10939425.808255227,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 54.7786350533653,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8432203863508583,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
    "importer_iso3": "LKA",
    "distance_km": 4535,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 84518.830393,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 3814.715219037733,
    "importer_population": 22156,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 8.7,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 111271.11232999999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 943.9656682091999,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 21.97737046626262,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 21.97737046626262,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-LKA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-LKA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-LKA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-LKA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-LKA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}