{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.256Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Ethiopia exports to Kenya: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Ethiopia to Kenya, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ETH",
    "country_name": "Ethiopia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "KEN",
    "country_name": "Kenya"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
    "importer_iso3": "KEN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 37,
    "current_lane_count": 9,
    "current_product_count": 9,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1997,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 85413800.36958887,
    "attention_trade_usd": 82745880.53085597,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 84703585.25088371,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 35749.66058880603,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 83319067.88822854,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 5,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 7,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.290985502316727,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 0.8216382880524952,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 9388.733386699882,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 96.87647683724562,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 99.32892886759241,
    "top_product_hs6": "271600",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 82745880.53085597,
    "top_product_description": "Electrical energy",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271600",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1171.2803955078125,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.52869830325253,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.70580397151516,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 12.1798788630303,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 15.525925108484856,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 110347.079517,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2007.0000000000002,
    "buyer_population_latest": 54985.703,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6939927181435905,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.6964619039059992,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.9642087608958247,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.871999999999996,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 6.416000000000001,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 96.87647683724562,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 110347.079517,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2007.0000000000002,
    "buyer_population_2024": 54985.703
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 1307469.9219922817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 3032681.820687206,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 131.95040816435002,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 12115703.036611367,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 299.5045887756846,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 803413.9664378405,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -93.36882090944228,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.98363017308625
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 111045.99263895894,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -86.17823472358687,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -66.79332837173388
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 859555.2966252399,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 674.053413543603,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -58.602409241507544
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 859025.1130829764,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.06168114423179549,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.2560064800476454
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 211314.47400180384,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -75.40066398717819,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.920203563293228
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 755829.3901115563,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 257.67989565404986,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.196071457473449
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 475079.61708291015,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.14459595004753,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.916944876666395
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 2088227.571281821,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 339.55318144440344,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 114.59331735043392
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 1952617.198194837,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.494041882788759,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 37.21379571585048
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 3709976.690621517,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 90.00020557287576,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 98.39692093803953
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 2873356.1665272554,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.550560121015373,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.22537506216501
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 4839619.567660819,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 68.43089708262633,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.33123277175678
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 3463413.2924284395,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.436249089255472,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.266291249984298
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 11416532.678399183,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 229.6324092581587,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 58.38531789981658
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 11410867.024165213,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.04962675090213198,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.09726770363635
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 12474876.334789502,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.324526421795976,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 53.2888772302955
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 16623636.250659503,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.25692218928123,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.343669219328191
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 21577595.58215664,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.80069617019321,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.65968472127047
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 16286745.65639121,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.520108858378276,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.294763598274614
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 40497526.82177104,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 148.6532771872635,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.55530493667811
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 15215696.386888532,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -62.42808492021608,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.991886805180417
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 19766735.107889544,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.91015728286135,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.667850291402111
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 11929723.508817866,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -39.64747620836824,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -33.462375440259116
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 13272807.267584672,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.258297459903943,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.451548861031396
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 25500161.93524603,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 92.12334980199289,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.860251165931366
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 69406844.22997461,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 172.181974397744,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 79.85560364392687
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 91339907.35743085,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.600720895453183,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 90.20967034505792
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "271600",
      "hs_description": "Electrical energy",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 104406804.61325152,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2879547854618258,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "701090",
      "hs_description": "Glass: carboys, bottles, flasks, jars, pots, phials and other containers of glass, (not ampoules), used for the conveyance or packing of goods",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15274267.761335682,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 45.25492690020449,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2674086071062927,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "230990",
      "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36990983.286297545,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9985847609689091,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "610910",
      "hs_description": "T-shirts, singlets and other vests: of cotton, knitted or crocheted",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13922668.240699945,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.6768631531783265,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "230400",
      "hs_description": "Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of soya-bean oil",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 57576816.01878579,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3831746952840533,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "940360",
      "hs_description": "Furniture: wooden, other than for office, kitchen or bedroom use",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15929308.651505165,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 22.185194913978822,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.942872185067371,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "071340",
      "hs_description": "Vegetables, leguminous: lentils, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16112360.6391638,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 84.11223082093161,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2448535001831669,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "340211",
      "hs_description": "Organic surface-active agents: anionic (other than soap), whether or not put up for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18831518.84813212,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9999940054805586,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "842230",
      "hs_description": "Machinery: for filling, closing, sealing, capsuling or labelling bottles, cans, bags or other containers, machinery for aerating beverages",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14051088.096822867,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ETH",
    "importer_iso3": "KEN",
    "distance_km": 1160,
    "shares_land_border": 1,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084,
    "importer_population": 54985.703,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 22.4,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 111271.11232999999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 943.9656682091999,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 11.52869830325253,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.70580397151516,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 12.1798788630303,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 15.525925108484856
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-KEN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-KEN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-KEN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-KEN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-KEN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}