{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.234Z", "seo": { "title": "Ethiopia exports to China: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Ethiopia to China, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "ETH", "country_name": "Ethiopia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "CHN", "country_name": "China" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "all_history_lane_count": 63, "current_lane_count": 23, "current_product_count": 23, "first_observed_last_year": 1998, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 343476582.36948574, "attention_trade_usd": 329573777.3001631, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 102328595.33940735, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 163717351.1010206, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 71066778.46196032, "access_friction_trade_usd": 343476582.36948574, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 12, "high_volatility_lane_count": 8, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 10, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 9, "access_friction_lane_count": 23, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1094483890125062, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 40.249634782800996, "product_concentration_hhi": 2937.591733777305, "top1_product_share_pct": 44.53451834276318, "top3_product_share_pct": 84.29806340808858, "top_product_hs6": "120740", "top_product_trade_usd": 152965641.5784347, "top_product_description": "Oil seeds: sesamum seeds, whether or not broken", "top_attention_product_hs6": "120740", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 8315.98828125, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": null, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 28.810068624848483, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878794, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.3584323595704655, "tariff_advantage_pp": 27.831443208308325, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 17734062.645370997, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 12556, "buyer_population_latest": 1412359.985, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.1812362915018895, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.16286575688667, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.01746865158438471, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 44.900000000000006, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 46.43, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 95.95232811115866, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "market_access_friction" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 17734062.645370997, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 12556, "buyer_population_2024": 1412359.985 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 509394.75788854284, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 465116.7150593745, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.692284744488177, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 726149.8173816643, "yoy_growth_pct": 56.12206439172318, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 746073.4935838588, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.743741818187728, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.564444205852055 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 607338.5189792854, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.595349626769664, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.300704101849266 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 2425960.2325189216, "yoy_growth_pct": 299.4411941129761, "cagr_3y_pct": 49.492411725813646 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 1764612.0887655613, "yoy_growth_pct": -27.261293688506584, "cagr_3y_pct": 33.23629470237923 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 4765230.673919721, "yoy_growth_pct": 170.04409095107408, "cagr_3y_pct": 98.70907462185392 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 4501009.41006322, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.544773840699735, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.878362288779506 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 13855210.299666643, "yoy_growth_pct": 207.8245130678817, "cagr_3y_pct": 98.75647721424907 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 82138075.31504688, "yoy_growth_pct": 492.83167514983967, "cagr_3y_pct": 158.31732288138275 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 115299500.42332056, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.37278080972862, "cagr_3y_pct": 194.78530817020777 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 63769078.83849469, "yoy_growth_pct": -44.69266683344908, "cagr_3y_pct": 66.34088476445173 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 67940969.19398475, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.54218381616587, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.129512797899606 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 182201463.87222117, "yoy_growth_pct": 168.1761329485901, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.477349310874988 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 213131851.62446806, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.975927138509995, "cagr_3y_pct": 49.513154596101884 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 266178036.8389617, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.88890553438228, "cagr_3y_pct": 57.64498514066374 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 290012734.70976806, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.954419438154627, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.75847183942438 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 296452337.5446629, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.220455195300053, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.626893909583046 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 448293023.4199457, "yoy_growth_pct": 51.219257413481124, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.97706579527625 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 330250872.9095764, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.331471681144457, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.426078318408644 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 368983664.7176677, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.728293544494717, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.5682459560164395 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 314513231.67330754, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.76228848397364, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.142863495455346 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 235739945.22987458, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.046096160830732, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.629044460594928 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 252953920.9399287, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.302103889635014, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.825144105383655 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 229681274.9475558, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.200349971210631, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.947545127884016 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 250591593.61100498, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.104058947871874, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.0573858496776953 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 304144051.05685127, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.37041258015069, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.335751220649599 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 325788052.0569884, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.1163650661348665, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.35778980130242 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "export_value_usd": 364632719.5707626, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.923294076781943, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.31734212756368 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "120740", "hs_description": "Oil seeds: sesamum seeds, whether or not broken", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1803373596.8572254, "current_below_peak_pct": 58.28809598064812, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8439137555962734, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "090111", "hs_description": "Coffee: not roasted or decaffeinated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 718298619.7326877, "current_below_peak_pct": 25.63071182641712, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.090012101158583, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "071331", "hs_description": "Vegetables, leguminous: beans of the species vigna mungo (l.) hepper or vigna radiata (l.) wilczek, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 473763780.70722526, "current_below_peak_pct": 27.6922197341288, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.29660606004652185, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "261590", "hs_description": "Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores and concentrates", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 219593894.26271302, "current_below_peak_pct": 33.41411871907542, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7688551149636317, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "520528", "hs_description": "Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of combed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, measuring less than 83.33 decitex (exceeding 120 metric number), not for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 24442036.65285932, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3525366436836103, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "530130", "hs_description": "Flax: tow and waste, including yarn waste and garnetted stock", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 257003760.21871686, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6595243058102798, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "120730", "hs_description": "Oil seeds: castor oil seeds, whether or not broken", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12212672.095679902, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.656415631484543, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "411200", "hs_description": "Leather: further prepared after tanning or crusting, including parchment dressed leather, of sheep or lamb, without wool on, whether or not split, other than leather of heading 41.14", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29365310.859386213, "current_below_peak_pct": 77.70539511961084, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9353008648056154, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "long_distance_without_fta" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "350300", "hs_description": "Gelatin (including gelatin in rectangular sheets, whether or not surface-worked or coloured) and gelatin derivatives: isinglass: other glues of animal origin, excluding casein glues of heading no. 3501", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 35363053.04561184, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5078143651852308, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage", "risk_driver_labels": [ "long_distance_without_fta", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "hs_code": "120242", "hs_description": "Ground-nuts: other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, shelled, whether or not broken,", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 529631063.8024285, "current_below_peak_pct": 96.62613823275285, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7233364897450556, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "long_distance_without_fta" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "ETH", "importer_iso3": "CHN", "distance_km": 8809, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 0, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 17734062.645370997, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12556.33325336033, "importer_population": 1412359.985, "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 111271.11232999999, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 943.9656682091999, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 28.810068624848483, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 30.189875567878794, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.3584323595704655, "tariff_advantage_pp": 27.831443208308325 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-CHN/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-CHN/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-CHN/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-CHN/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ETH-CHN/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }