{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:17.878Z", "seo": { "title": "Estonia exports to Ukraine: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Estonia to Ukraine, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "EST", "country_name": "Estonia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "UKR", "country_name": "Ukraine" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "all_history_lane_count": 255, "current_lane_count": 184, "current_product_count": 184, "first_observed_last_year": 1995, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 109470289.57983227, "attention_trade_usd": 37899581.743938096, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 68588007.54920878, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 35107693.18370122, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 44256932.700550236, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 11, "high_volatility_lane_count": 114, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 110, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 52, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.4233578941215423, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 38.96335282044292, "product_concentration_hhi": 453.76214195938223, "top1_product_share_pct": 15.365158568737519, "top3_product_share_pct": 28.777872319695103, "top_product_hs6": "852580", "top_product_trade_usd": 16820283.579597373, "top_product_description": "Television cameras, digital cameras and video camera recorders", "top_attention_product_hs6": "852580", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 1066.1336669921875, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.6888999938964844, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.231121903662835, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.19155715432682, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.5510111466693495, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 6.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 200085.537744, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 4567, "buyer_population_latest": 43814.583, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.388047577338883, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.285640541163119, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -3.37794288946095, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.714000000000002, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.852, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 34.620883793588085, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 200085.537744, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 4567, "buyer_population_2024": 43814.583 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 62251135.01490597, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 72345944.40076399, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.216265588476155, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 109638616.22775994, "yoy_growth_pct": 51.547701997518104, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 115989373.79516736, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.7924459336613054, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.052462698106456 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 67157771.1619518, "yoy_growth_pct": -42.10006575210091, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.449980320962153 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 54687938.75582927, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.567966432434712, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.693399089624698 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 85914651.22168088, "yoy_growth_pct": 57.099816113517555, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.520607521075174 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 68240105.7625857, "yoy_growth_pct": -20.57221347903807, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.5343495273865795 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 101425132.92358725, "yoy_growth_pct": 48.629800306077556, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.862121538569944 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 97569078.80923769, "yoy_growth_pct": -3.8018723793585507, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.331389422346743 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 113734181.93037865, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.567854609702913, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.56334377449049 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 140194179.68807837, "yoy_growth_pct": 23.26477168833638, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.393914578094911 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 167414398.00377855, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.416083018755238, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.71820601741272 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 202148831.16440323, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.747578209994067, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.13233123866367 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 136153439.3662935, "yoy_growth_pct": -32.6469321726808, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9701295518542152 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 142377753.31628966, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.571543678195966, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.256423131090859 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 152806285.02008665, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.324551385938904, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.905953514327447 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 139861648.00036016, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.471272643023086, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8997309642834184 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 133369210.92246686, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.642042454609562, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1551852427074802 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 97850788.97836982, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.63165036250038, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.806528722076884 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 76490158.86789186, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.829798546846447, "cagr_3y_pct": -18.222159016883012 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 76761898.68956098, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.3552611547564588, "cagr_3y_pct": -16.817868981660368 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 92908457.38345179, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.034600458738552, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.7127978685492762 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 105548706.21457052, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.60505726507748, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.330916364501341 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 152978327.6240671, "yoy_growth_pct": 44.936241390848174, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.84271134934908 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 174017198.68819496, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.75284420406877, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.266663597412563 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 162894040.87516472, "yoy_growth_pct": -6.391987629315176, "cagr_3y_pct": 15.562632793366715 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 144807036.23665267, "yoy_growth_pct": -11.103539786561733, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.813167029964624 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 169051079.92924166, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.742310541435202, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9604651188991564 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 144701027.24052143, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.403961630361795, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.870768043577133 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "852580", "hs_description": "Television cameras, digital cameras and video camera recorders", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1107044352.5701149, "current_below_peak_pct": 44.543425563447855, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.4036866533918184, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "030351", "hs_description": "Fish: frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 58721837.398409374, "current_below_peak_pct": 16.187568230755666, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7151630509078496, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "030353", "hs_description": "Fish: frozen, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17721761.89132041, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4273933402464628, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "930690", "hs_description": "Ammunition: n.e.s. in chapter 93", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1551678980.3267865, "current_below_peak_pct": 69.5512497994667, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6872046072875324, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "901890", "hs_description": "Medical, surgical or dental instruments and appliances: n.e.c. in heading no. 9018", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 180955096.3983264, "current_below_peak_pct": 12.039853168630072, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2953605974002638, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "321410", "hs_description": "Mastics: painters' fillings", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 57449288.47327416, "current_below_peak_pct": 51.86613200517357, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7905987855848465, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "160413", "hs_description": "Fish preparations: sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14396963.177645033, "current_below_peak_pct": 71.80550965889759, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5476750226720182, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "870590", "hs_description": "Vehicles: break-down lorries, road-sweepers, spraying lorries, mobile workshops, mobile radiological units, and other special purpose vehicles n.e.s. in heading no. 8705", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 157232442.53531733, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.4518178724857567, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "901480", "hs_description": "Navigational instruments and appliances: for navigation other than aeronautical or space navigation (excluding direction finding compasses)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 50801878.44315268, "current_below_peak_pct": 43.29294723337792, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4922312589749307, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "030389", "hs_description": "Fish: frozen, n.e.c. in heading 0303, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 21071876.192509934, "current_below_peak_pct": 10.018094100323731, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3033227281806832, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "distance_km": 1066, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455, "importer_population": 43814.583, "importer_biz_entry_days": 6.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 36262.924354, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 27280.658439997173, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.231121903662835, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.19155715432682, "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.5510111466693495 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-UKR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-UKR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-UKR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-UKR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-UKR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }