{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:15.208Z", "seo": { "title": "Estonia exports to Nigeria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Estonia to Nigeria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "EST", "country_name": "Estonia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NGA", "country_name": "Nigeria" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "all_history_lane_count": 29, "current_lane_count": 5, "current_product_count": 5, "first_observed_last_year": 1998, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 27269179.954636652, "attention_trade_usd": 26494961.81920548, "critical_trade_usd": 26494961.81920548, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 538969.8265870785, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 26952900.592489365, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 235248.3088440893, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 27269179.954636652, "critical_lane_count": 2, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 2, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 3, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.844399827160574, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 74.45256886185346, "product_concentration_hhi": 4738.400877254923, "top1_product_share_pct": 51.285473264059846, "top3_product_share_pct": 98.84015814676704, "top_product_hs6": "100199", "top_product_trade_usd": 13985127.994963547, "top_product_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed", "top_attention_product_hs6": "100199", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 6166.3291015625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.24379998445510864, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 20.61558500268199, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 20.61558500268199, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 7.2, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 440776.971536, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2085, "buyer_population_latest": 211400.711, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -17.702539793973116, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -19.412873862302447, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.1223415578896843, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 26.304000000000002, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 20.386000000000003, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted", "attention_trade_share_pct": 97.16083088410025, "critical_trade_share_pct": 97.16083088410025, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 440776.971536, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2085, "buyer_population_2024": 211400.711 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 261487.25385528104, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 399533.35301651974, "yoy_growth_pct": 52.79266852434792, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 335651.83158299373, "yoy_growth_pct": -15.989033443944955, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 201952.99112355843, "yoy_growth_pct": -39.83259672050284, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.251299465049778 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 278132.72307379846, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.72151703543323, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.372938686261215 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 1232096.3854361845, "yoy_growth_pct": 342.9886465064615, "cagr_3y_pct": 54.259488640158615 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 196178.003050039, "yoy_growth_pct": -84.07770647094395, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.9624230183088889 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 558180.9746016711, "yoy_growth_pct": 184.52780939935258, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.136559385400382 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 736729.4293751973, "yoy_growth_pct": 31.9875565269744, "cagr_3y_pct": -15.752999955326407 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 15424821.328654448, "yoy_growth_pct": 1993.688770073414, "cagr_3y_pct": 328.4070517799557 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 28117745.330077846, "yoy_growth_pct": 82.28895318122068, "cagr_3y_pct": 269.3191447326018 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 25972127.87169722, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.630830399781152, "cagr_3y_pct": 227.89377466027472 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 124662756.83924215, "yoy_growth_pct": 379.9866897894482, "cagr_3y_pct": 100.68066349103724 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 294279459.9419343, "yoy_growth_pct": 136.06044612138652, "cagr_3y_pct": 118.73913267495162 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 198207529.6450967, "yoy_growth_pct": -32.646495380885234, "cagr_3y_pct": 96.88118082076645 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 400790478.8992107, "yoy_growth_pct": 102.20749414356347, "cagr_3y_pct": 47.59111817695536 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 86461762.98262134, "yoy_growth_pct": -78.42719137937296, "cagr_3y_pct": -33.520453919291334 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 86484336.52388035, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.026108120491996623, "cagr_3y_pct": -24.152878549924182 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 14449003.924861915, "yoy_growth_pct": -83.29292389163186, "cagr_3y_pct": -66.96506136885658 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 11850962.679900065, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.980763646215692, "cagr_3y_pct": -48.44036337503665 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 103215944.1938868, "yoy_growth_pct": 770.9498711775302, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.072574690873722 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 40282200.38110834, "yoy_growth_pct": -60.97288970641985, "cagr_3y_pct": 40.742445247299464 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 97057380.8979825, "yoy_growth_pct": 140.94359290139656, "cagr_3y_pct": 101.56957450800279 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 13084667.273566434, "yoy_growth_pct": -86.51862727748671, "cagr_3y_pct": -49.76512823835314 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 40384478.81260579, "yoy_growth_pct": 208.63970759264373, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.0845633962015091 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 117949977.09875849, "yoy_growth_pct": 192.06759766809486, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.714417405921735 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 216658455.74141198, "yoy_growth_pct": 83.68672980750623, "cagr_3y_pct": 154.88111202909528 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 18366158.400431484, "yoy_growth_pct": -91.52299025783142, "cagr_3y_pct": -23.098534812948614 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "export_value_usd": 28118912.5768151, "yoy_growth_pct": 53.10176447217447, "cagr_3y_pct": -37.99402319051468 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "100199", "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 837835108.3275644, "current_below_peak_pct": 75.8763955967846, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7482135469094657, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "100119", "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, durum wheat, other than seed", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 522640904.2708297, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.12649194918397, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9265428704636177, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "880330", "hs_description": "Aircraft and spacecraft: parts of aeroplanes or helicopters n.e.c. in heading no. 8803", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 179861447.8844034, "current_below_peak_pct": 60.55802827075433, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.767782440126351, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "841112", "hs_description": "Turbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kN", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15794582.53981949, "current_below_peak_pct": 49.430979864008805, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.32829449125300564, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "hs_code": "847130", "hs_description": "Data processing machines: portable, digital and automatic, weighing not more than 10kg, consisting of at least a central processing unit, a keyboard and a display", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 57899831.73789029, "current_below_peak_pct": 30.22143001846633, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.043605253710522, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "EST", "importer_iso3": "NGA", "distance_km": 6152, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 440776.971536, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2085.030695738767, "importer_population": 211400.711, "importer_biz_entry_days": 7.2, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 26.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 36262.924354, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 27280.658439997173, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 20.61558500268199, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 20.61558500268199, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-NGA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-NGA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-NGA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-NGA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-NGA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }