{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:20.747Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Estonia exports to Sri Lanka: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Estonia to Sri Lanka, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "EST",
    "country_name": "Estonia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "LKA",
    "country_name": "Sri Lanka"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "EST",
    "importer_iso3": "LKA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 14,
    "current_lane_count": 6,
    "current_product_count": 6,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2005,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1160351.5780873084,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 167558.14248424725,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 295904.966055992,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 312056.7860540978,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 1,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 4,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8074611367100503,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 35.78554090009825,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 3192.628982330224,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 47.605384127435116,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 87.5469946955182,
    "top_product_hs6": "600410",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 552389.8259772185,
    "top_product_description": "Fabrics: knitted or crocheted fabrics of a width exceeding 30 cm, other than those of heading 60.01, containing by weight 5% or more of elastomeric yarn but not containing rubber thread",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 7444.53125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.04600000008940697,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 14.732215566283527,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 14.732215566283527,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 84518.83039300001,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 3815,
    "buyer_population_latest": 22156,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 2.1452073861579324,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 2.039656303460391,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.1034412369869564,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 29.916000000000004,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.772,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 84518.83039300001,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 3815,
    "buyer_population_2024": 22156
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 127368.13380711415,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 231725.99602500477,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 81.93404354650417,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 349363.1031426861,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 50.76560642120942,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 389285.09278469376,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.427076666909164,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 45.12280450204899
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 260136.49749531667,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.17583891166538,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.930299066880516
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 551771.5358791432,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 112.10846659034334,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.455700514440984
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 953728.45134568,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 72.84843260827054,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.80903144151777
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1822508.9915158108,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 91.09307150733623,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 91.34750201943957
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 2085008.4046252565,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.403188918761956,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 55.75769288263071
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1610032.9542747089,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.78050531100454,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.07027104740493
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 406048.91859957675,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -74.78008648695675,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -39.377167219948326
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 457696.54852366186,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.719558545362663,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -39.67602622150963
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 425845.91826602,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.95889675383804,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -35.8092315905705
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1212044.7395681643,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 184.620490083227,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.9837335994927
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 4566107.209943212,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 276.72761251123916,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 115.27296324780724
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 5521057.9244182985,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 20.91389164922748,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 134.9217739074041
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 3277894.7247381224,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.629227774612,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 39.323844578074116
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 3281856.708837819,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.12086977869654181,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.424102080524044
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 2934021.355828534,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.59873674778633,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.00087594322698
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1185021.0686831824,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -59.61102783628014,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -28.762223306299884
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 1637872.2911028075,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.2146135952538,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -20.67925092391073
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 5904690.9447966805,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 260.50985030224496,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.25385091340673
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 4048198.0534378295,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.440983257469657,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 50.60702389634897
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 3311908.2930017943,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.188086420592974,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.454053605743045
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 3080477.208919145,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.987846993579893,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.497949444627093
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 3604012.281609695,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.995258759737553,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.8000520945762783
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 2305507.973974913,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.02940850841991,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.373668017914584
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 2269552.1586833647,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.5595615238561455,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.682053233218769
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 6601026.461025507,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 190.85149842314974,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.35124806297426
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "export_value_usd": 2102166.5497907973,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -68.15394450843917,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.0308703677646487
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "hs_code": "600410",
      "hs_description": "Fabrics: knitted or crocheted fabrics of a width exceeding 30 cm, other than those of heading 60.01, containing by weight 5% or more of elastomeric yarn but not containing rubber thread",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 313193826.82315195,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 15.241504162716277,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6960924287275896,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "hs_code": "480421",
      "hs_description": "Kraft paper and paperboard: sack kraft paper, uncoated, unbleached, in rolls or sheets, other than that of heading no. 4802 or 4803",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16597237.033891322,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 92.1707845492883,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9090491448455914,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "hs_code": "830810",
      "hs_description": "Hooks, eyes and eyelets: of base metal, of a kind used for clothing, footwear, awnings, handbags, travel goods or other made up articles",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11236919.581168737,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0558137112475479,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "hs_code": "600537",
      "hs_description": "Fabrics: warp knit (including those made on galloon knitting machines), other than those of headings 60.01 to 60.04, of synthetic fibres, dyed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17783943.09517757,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 40.863654369775155,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7400050229100879,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "hs_code": "830890",
      "hs_description": "Clasps, frames with clasps, buckles, buckle clasps: of base metal, of a kind used for clothing, footwear, awnings, handbags, travel goods or other made up articles, including parts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13427986.228785003,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 46.241523894019124,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.977253362368817,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "EST",
      "importer_iso3": "LKA",
      "hs_code": "600240",
      "hs_description": "Fabrics: knitted or crocheted, other than those of heading 60.01, of a width not exceeding 30 cm, containing by weight 5% or more of elastomeric yarn but not containing rubber thread",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12959982.199814793,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 32.06795826485618,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.45585388101680485,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "EST",
    "importer_iso3": "LKA",
    "distance_km": 7431,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 84518.830393,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 3814.715219037733,
    "importer_population": 22156,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 8.7,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 36262.924354,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 27280.658439997173,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 14.732215566283527,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 14.732215566283527,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-LKA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-LKA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-LKA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-LKA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/EST-LKA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}