{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:54.162Z", "seo": { "title": "Germany exports to Norway: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Germany to Norway, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "DEU", "country_name": "Germany" }, "importer": { "iso3": "NOR", "country_name": "Norway" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "all_history_lane_count": 1165, "current_lane_count": 1147, "current_product_count": 1147, "first_observed_last_year": 2009, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 9543113865.96963, "attention_trade_usd": 3791015555.1927137, "critical_trade_usd": 155193080.7435942, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 3437679546.915816, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 1972901666.033441, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 17467312.265435264, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 4068980169.8219275, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 5, "high_attention_lane_count": 193, "high_volatility_lane_count": 211, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 576, "declining_demand_lane_count": 3, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 403, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9913510713831919, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 30.65419073526502, "product_concentration_hhi": 533.4109613063212, "top1_product_share_pct": 22.477464259450077, "top3_product_share_pct": 26.383592451545724, "top_product_hs6": "870380", "top_product_trade_usd": 2145050008.461948, "top_product_description": "Vehicles: with only electric motor for propulsion", "top_attention_product_hs6": "870380", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 969.2815551757812, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.49860063195228577, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.8095182405699592, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.456693516985184, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.082326045233539, "tariff_advantage_pp": -0.625632528248355, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 4, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 482437.01979000005, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 89203, "buyer_population_latest": 5408.32, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.4203268959053013, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 2.573677479094294, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.8254061252542577, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 24.656, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 34.356, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 39.7251422170632, "critical_trade_share_pct": 1.6262310491443117, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 482437.01979000005, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 89203, "buyer_population_2024": 5408.32 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 4325320466.046625, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 4421323027.112492, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.2195479345282765, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 4557060569.13351, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.070066158673468, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 4868354703.16, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.831029109750908, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.021067798999489 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 4185210275.7994323, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.032347045648619, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.8127690658421125 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 3964317514.0175457, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.277937002572541, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.538582973368954 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 4233662513.1353793, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.794233765722568, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.549544017978324 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 4403197404.916437, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.004449841125934, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.706870438661956 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 5118582178.168007, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.24693847368277, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.89144217075415 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 6408848797.16453, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.207500321081543, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.820983741460081 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 7116676496.651721, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.044537355918838, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.355385056402707 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 8339753791.534961, "yoy_growth_pct": 17.1860740818931, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.670567982578888 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10372313315.848373, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.371936811569995, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.408228106009016 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 11370670183.296486, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.625209314904449, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.905859541501368 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 8572503695.75389, "yoy_growth_pct": -24.608632933994535, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.9217603488425041 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 9497410302.917488, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.789223778599478, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8946425619647 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10796653750.408525, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.67997597294417, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.711878000022904 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10833124665.583187, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.33779832175577784, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.114020989161519 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10908216504.77992, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.6931687903057204, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.724794346696659 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10757896555.826918, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.3780433207127296, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.11980151224014746 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 8759589039.95193, "yoy_growth_pct": -18.57526241775046, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.837028935124612 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 9065254304.14093, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.4894932033327386, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.9824894488263 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 9435498350.44145, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.084210259070131, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.2778393404057535 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 9862689016.839388, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.527483875591498, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.032859522637988 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 9440405206.413599, "yoy_growth_pct": -4.281629580987378, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.3608431953516353 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 9198398565.420635, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.5635196339723887, "cagr_3y_pct": -0.8447318145859195 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10885703303.678997, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.343461921745963, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.344424527291978 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 11705143735.637466, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.527675604400552, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.430774107609661 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10433353463.112904, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.865225590117888, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.288694849605834 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "export_value_usd": 10410226056.36556, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.2216680075980415, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.4776968671363466 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "870380", "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only electric motor for propulsion", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4189229314.9193025, "current_below_peak_pct": 29.959194538176998, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8331310259411357, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1490723687.904375, "current_below_peak_pct": 15.588549978343005, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5618916804062283, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "870421", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 564681468.445787, "current_below_peak_pct": 52.350771803326936, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4556984542743423, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "870490", "hs_description": "Vehicles: for transport of goods, n.e.s. in heading no. 8704", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 354928449.42184377, "current_below_peak_pct": 2.1419634859075205, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.7053903710275438, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "230990", "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 636636269.3222085, "current_below_peak_pct": 52.68482924242891, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6946293376704449, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "300215", "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 468413802.95061934, "current_below_peak_pct": 43.9146293198898, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3629082216063195, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "847989", "hs_description": "Machines and mechanical appliances: n.e.s. in item no. 8479.8, having individual functions", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 471511186.97239566, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4024078146587121, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "853710", "hs_description": "Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than switching apparatus of heading no. 8517), for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 349437623.01425505, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6022215059102927, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "870332", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 190072791.5542225, "current_below_peak_pct": 95.92762472903301, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8924719954776865, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "hs_code": "310420", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 136640988.13984293, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.4356504301039643, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "NOR", "distance_km": 839, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 482437.01979000005, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 89202.75053805989, "importer_population": 5408.32, "importer_biz_entry_days": 4, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.8, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.8095182405699592, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.456693516985184, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 4.082326045233539, "tariff_advantage_pp": -0.625632528248355 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-NOR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-NOR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-NOR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-NOR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-NOR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }