{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:54.197Z", "seo": { "title": "Germany exports to Kyrgyzstan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Germany to Kyrgyzstan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "DEU", "country_name": "Germany" }, "importer": { "iso3": "KGZ", "country_name": "Kyrgyzstan" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "all_history_lane_count": 252, "current_lane_count": 235, "current_product_count": 235, "first_observed_last_year": 1997, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 424932794.070601, "attention_trade_usd": 238086642.381594, "critical_trade_usd": 17950260.212109778, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 361066465.359415, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 57890323.70515441, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 267726975.6914125, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 1, "high_attention_lane_count": 50, "high_volatility_lane_count": 213, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 63, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 197, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.9345607517632315, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 22.321908000028202, "product_concentration_hhi": 450.6031275233557, "top1_product_share_pct": 15.21407290991318, "top3_product_share_pct": 29.620259195452725, "top_product_hs6": "870324", "top_product_trade_usd": 64649585.108032465, "top_product_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 3000cc", "top_attention_product_hs6": "870350", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 5016.0107421875, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.1222308948636055, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.417894875019158, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.417894875019158, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 10, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 8543.423503, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 1276, "buyer_population_latest": 6694.2, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 13.276519998542934, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.221783044836409, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.8474231373167171, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.829999999999995, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": -9.092, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 56.02924643703465, "critical_trade_share_pct": 4.224258626912992, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 8543.423503, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 1276, "buyer_population_2024": 6694.2 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 37219566.362161726, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 47382314.93305517, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.304854849746807, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 34762326.04145408, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.634386499333008, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 46890441.82037384, "yoy_growth_pct": 34.88867737002692, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.003460795061956 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 38851822.28346976, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.143407536440215, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.402329598633683 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 24702858.250885796, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.417761641527704, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.762760759607183 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 25997888.236094434, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.242429730422793, "cagr_3y_pct": -17.848042561099355 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 30885201.501274876, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.798885589465275, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.36402393099268 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 35443516.29486879, "yoy_growth_pct": 14.758896079747963, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.78807858149371 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 47150952.8480031, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.03125021720605, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.9506540067989 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 46961343.199968696, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.4021332265450317, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.99086927358524 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 74621563.8887304, "yoy_growth_pct": 58.89997773483648, "cagr_3y_pct": 28.166890688287527 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 80345578.87910596, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.670725045257343, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.442028423593793 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 171169398.1534511, "yoy_growth_pct": 113.04146480916586, "cagr_3y_pct": 53.89642729809647 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 77400521.51679878, "yoy_growth_pct": -54.78133220553231, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.2262573949047173 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 63929818.65021625, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.403891605121657, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.335405534738026 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 109669985.55456282, "yoy_growth_pct": 71.54746856800578, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.790745893534584 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 149212655.17026848, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.056054366882776, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.457361740383732 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 154571851.11129782, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.59164973970465, "cagr_3y_pct": 34.21744848692298 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 153211296.125031, "yoy_growth_pct": -0.8802087679516513, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.78949650451111 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 70327191.21473774, "yoy_growth_pct": -54.097907273530346, "cagr_3y_pct": -22.177375781295172 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 58395296.05503473, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.96626148948569, "cagr_3y_pct": -27.709290770283534 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 69853986.39976566, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.62262565452475, "cagr_3y_pct": -23.033783824618638 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 73609443.90995288, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.376153464879163, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.5321122936495568 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 66198852.537008494, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.067446484190034, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.269557947834923 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 49117426.492164165, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.803205630029545, "cagr_3y_pct": -11.076857335460332 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 59620178.74525825, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.382944920311765, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.784833643836652 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 289371832.43827873, "yoy_growth_pct": 385.35888105047525, "cagr_3y_pct": 63.506591144872274 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 683257918.7426037, "yoy_growth_pct": 136.11763210862566, "cagr_3y_pct": 140.500706564319 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "export_value_usd": 609252316.471273, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.831283508213541, "cagr_3y_pct": 117.00411621719509 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870324", "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 3000cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 435118534.49248683, "current_below_peak_pct": 43.59955213429056, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.1537349747298618, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870350", "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel) and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 69327794.03372577, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.48332011667413394, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870323", "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1221592858.1462379, "current_below_peak_pct": 29.37340805435522, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3365490683740329, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870340", "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 183040339.33435842, "current_below_peak_pct": 11.886315044073058, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7928894152738972, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870333", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 2500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 164796496.79120824, "current_below_peak_pct": 64.17428944556957, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.42351719553932, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "840999", "hs_description": "Engines: parts for internal combustion piston engines (excluding spark-ignition)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 33665001.32507176, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.351304677748177, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870332", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 316432816.5917919, "current_below_peak_pct": 46.53199885128439, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.0217953786362504, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870360", "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, capable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 601069522.5063637, "current_below_peak_pct": 24.6167559411133, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7587728546149919, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "870830", "hs_description": "Vehicle parts: brakes, servo-brakes and parts thereof", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 77349504.78999102, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.1495251116868643, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 139647811.6383148, "current_below_peak_pct": 3.9246707200203947, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8174792153395906, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "DEU", "importer_iso3": "KGZ", "distance_km": 4570, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 8543.423503, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1276.2426433330345, "importer_population": 6694.2, "importer_biz_entry_days": 10, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.4, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.417894875019158, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.417894875019158, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-KGZ/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-KGZ/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-KGZ/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-KGZ/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-KGZ/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }