{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:54.135Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Germany exports to Italy: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Germany to Italy, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "DEU",
    "country_name": "Germany"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ITA",
    "country_name": "Italy"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 2997,
    "current_lane_count": 2975,
    "current_product_count": 2975,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2020,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 85530761239.63733,
    "attention_trade_usd": 21807622724.640644,
    "critical_trade_usd": 6867043743.110267,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 11583072944.803839,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 19989956142.74781,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 1514182712.2324705,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 26734117115.767517,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 44,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 638,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 491,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1331,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 26,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 1078,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.67783453230346,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 27.840519403556893,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 54.179347195804816,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 4.131893739125226,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 9.25513691206871,
    "top_product_hs6": "870332",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 3534040168.6867204,
    "top_product_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "870332",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 1146.023193359375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.24708136916160583,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 0,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 35551,
    "buyer_population_latest": 59066.223,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.3456337761183397,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6164129413341017,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.26132844935394806,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 21.387999999999998,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 22.601999999999997,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 25.496818230742445,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 8.028741523614416,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 2099880.198259,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 35551,
    "buyer_population_2024": 59066.223
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 38628968509.73352,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 38460000353.64892,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.43741306745487263,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 36812263455.3951,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.284287267557152,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 39516779255.388275,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.346779431996064,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.7603057051916107
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 42195935693.04702,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.779794528152072,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.1384133254382496
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 40899153359.6146,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.073239903638636,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.571579351359344
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 41356168495.20657,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.1174195504087159,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.5280983277169868
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 43327370946.64123,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.766404923761569,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.885923039202452
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 52716111887.69657,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.669306805201316,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.828593834828258
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 62270473558.0991,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.124177463536384,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.616539154296815
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 64854037858.60071,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.148939542094721,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.390922177123478
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 73003012747.08362,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.565100273709827,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.463447329195574
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 86664110830.5126,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.713060693477644,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.64836623117893
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 89471242914.37787,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.239094080541749,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.322294700253854
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 69225010861.96411,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.628759133019962,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.755687826650032
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 76899647400.03273,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.086508246812677,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.9062767309663626
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 85727830137.34073,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.480134221401173,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.4145582125209666
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 70128706077.75735,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.196102752854838,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.4332687759713627
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 69707742823.46318,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.6002723817938649,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.220013484871276
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 71017440000.07208,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.8788403175322266,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.082239700415726
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 63869148844.92087,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.065543273798605,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.0684626286362593
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 66073834977.82996,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.4518796207261726,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.768789013989469
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 72171678356.7327,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.228832231319362,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.5388540148730359
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 81029208009.29117,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.272860842693945,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.255546099196875
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 75508133841.01216,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.813683983738228,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.5493669609393494
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 68529800205.77455,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.241830356887103,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.7111575879300234
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 88554440545.39648,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.220339588753962,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.0045122262684076
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 92747866259.53246,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.735421158226671,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.095214096830049
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 93292587458.76912,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.5873139956798612,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.829631922113103
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "export_value_usd": 86660181482.8197,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.10925289630393,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.7181753662649393
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870332",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 6537219475.3119545,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 54.771522597484555,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.39378656145073415,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14699547557.66896,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 56.27561360690896,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7903705670602765,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "300215",
      "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 6361787263.336785,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 31.179374912473413,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5561277622973483,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870350",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel) and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2434861330.9356823,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 4.797302823562117,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.2995416151471075,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2124520254.3201954,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 65.24850680992125,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4878430548569928,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "declining_buyer_demand",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870340",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 7638849831.284512,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.792567749777079,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870380",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only electric motor for propulsion",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2744035811.7047453,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.434358838662219,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870322",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4929521504.014143,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 20.314666281952217,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.2332136728657753,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "850440",
      "hs_description": "Electrical static converters",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2481653358.8168106,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 10.268230538701337,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6974711070635476,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "ITA",
      "hs_code": "870360",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, capable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1731268614.989136,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 17.0699288191013,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.192300431839746,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
    "importer_iso3": "ITA",
    "distance_km": 1184,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 2099880.198259,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35551.286193786254,
    "importer_population": 59066.223,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 13.8,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 0,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 0
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-ITA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-ITA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-ITA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-ITA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-ITA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}