{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:54.174Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Germany exports to Iran: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Germany to Iran, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "DEU",
    "country_name": "Germany"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "IRN",
    "country_name": "Iran"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 509,
    "current_lane_count": 443,
    "current_product_count": 443,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1998,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1318129208.1157007,
    "attention_trade_usd": 654201162.1207345,
    "critical_trade_usd": 70063657.13554348,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 482582118.3277144,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 747156531.5797213,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 687133113.0228906,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 4,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 108,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 201,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 374,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 310,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9642172332944928,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 47.964905216509464,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 198.0524333082603,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 7.624272938613674,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 17.750814251510143,
    "top_product_hs6": "300212",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 100497768.51032808,
    "top_product_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: antisera and other blood fractions",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "100199",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 3914.946044921875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.005598920397460461,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 56.776517213786015,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 56.776517213786015,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2757,
    "buyer_population_latest": 85028.763,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.431909337919595,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.360726244823533,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.0166815769729887,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 39.459999999999994,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 40.714000000000006,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 49.631034506543685,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 5.315386132418784,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2757,
    "buyer_population_2024": 85028.763
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1679617048.4190218,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1604339632.956469,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.481820158553962,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1760259366.1181138,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.718623785059567,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1499043907.1980462,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -14.839600569552658,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.720307811730561
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1271842649.9807777,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.156411104858435,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.449445714799385
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1430813031.8934906,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.499217722814638,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.674124149002569
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1754842805.4792488,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.6465489454585,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.392075037859967
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2662410633.6976085,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 51.71789891291729,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.92258245925876
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2968510972.381163,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.497112233901973,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.54161848512613
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 4298135016.017047,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 44.79094252999638,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.79711938005765
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 5186306394.869325,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 20.66411072575658,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.890012872064204
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 4573418619.009904,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.817423214057198,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.496130006838094
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 4492719474.592899,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.7645256456859215,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.4868445289797139
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 5602581826.078894,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.7035755907409,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6069265920133144
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 3429133660.128469,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -38.793688935223756,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.152185111147515
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 4948163931.093431,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 44.2977854327222,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.2709706612511935
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 4189329445.3668256,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.335677966492122,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.234925448844876
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 3429849202.47841,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.12892141314788,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.006955037403266751
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2457654142.872759,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.34512546216733,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -20.806009170682948
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 3024863799.5721946,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.079311559942383,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.287332506350122
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2150350184.2296906,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.910842711866437,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.412293620732243
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2769774712.335512,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.805751391032853,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.065767909520779
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 3270199843.614895,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.067358657391217,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.6335827647941956
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2933354192.4801207,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -10.300460743782047,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.905164862512095
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1836085136.1450648,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.40663364649212,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.80676526037584
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1767668122.0765529,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.7262441006497227,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -18.540423948131313
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1745040764.2667425,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.2800682168341182,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.89657343949833
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1685219323.6682415,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.4280827029068095,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8175436729744208
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1549773359.0028827,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.037290028845124,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.29032966470313
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1566051542.521277,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.0503589717703932,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.54305745820388
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "300212",
      "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: antisera and other blood fractions",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 249637745.88154608,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.120111606116454,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "100199",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1673499599.121892,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 87.33233113591868,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9593964105392202,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 279627323.4366926,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 65.89066210235397,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7243937926787304,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "240399",
      "hs_description": "Tobacco: other than homogenised or reconstituted or smoking",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 43756146.72321419,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7263363502687572,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "382200",
      "hs_description": "Reagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing and prepared diagnostic or laboratory reagents whether or not on a backing, other than those of heading no. 3002 or 3006: certified reference material",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 104398113.4196317,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 1.6054442504981479,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7949631529022549,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "300215",
      "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 152983398.63396892,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 15.948219355324536,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.10023001958495113,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "842230",
      "hs_description": "Machinery: for filling, closing, sealing, capsuling or labelling bottles, cans, bags or other containers, machinery for aerating beverages",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 94451696.78856313,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 54.04742142742334,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8013646709450429,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "870710",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: bodies (including cabs) for the motor vehicles of heading no. 8703",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 995995964.1371303,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 4.6517579000578495,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 3.308049490203282,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "300431",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: containing insulin, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 136278699.24788162,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 30.958945967292284,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2929062132178617,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "841480",
      "hs_description": "Pumps and compressors: for air, vacuum or gas, n.e.s. in heading no. 8414",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 129608289.16880815,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 86.76923930885681,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0473172355674831,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "distance_km": 3512,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 231547.57124,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2723.167585538084,
    "importer_population": 85028.763,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 56.776517213786015,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 56.776517213786015,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-IRN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-IRN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-IRN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-IRN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-IRN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}