{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:54.135Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Germany exports to China: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Germany to China, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "DEU",
    "country_name": "Germany"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "CHN",
    "country_name": "China"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
    "importer_iso3": "CHN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 2277,
    "current_lane_count": 2207,
    "current_product_count": 2207,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 92898648084.47125,
    "attention_trade_usd": 43038586003.94238,
    "critical_trade_usd": 8301069275.038721,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 21658959690.26244,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 14994340602.413933,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 64706402.9559594,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 24521603412.832527,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 92898648084.47125,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 121,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1004,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 754,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1238,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 21,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 913,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 2207,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9150872413923679,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 28.18162218673167,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 167.5967656531306,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 10.292115162568694,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 16.350353543537828,
    "top_product_hs6": "870323",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 9561235845.323196,
    "top_product_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "870840",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 7785.341796875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.00559999980032444,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 29.912295578395064,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 29.912295578395064,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 17734062.645370997,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 12556,
    "buyer_population_latest": 1412359.985,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.1812362915018895,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.16286575688667,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.01746865158438471,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 44.900000000000006,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 46.43,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 46.32853856474648,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 8.935619028051615,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "declining_buyer_demand",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 17734062.645370997,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 12556,
    "buyer_population_2024": 1412359.985
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 7622104844.024044,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 7189208593.628904,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.679484332133578,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 6109910746.923676,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.012749075909493,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 6908754717.5517435,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.07456039403332,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.2223767887013977
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 7759023945.078759,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.307127149367458,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5751126186131845
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 9247497033.969492,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.183767177762245,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.814422270190896
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 12015988685.562075,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.937740357448984,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.259643531234527
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 14750158898.750282,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.754433985723345,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.878670451116047
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 21785736798.5424,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.698319374635425,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.06056113314844
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 27450781608.05946,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.00345750021218,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.70382900232058
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 27933880427.065704,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.7598727275015325,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.721408903002494
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 35443391786.982216,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.883165693801693,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.612732747762916
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 42079366451.83866,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.72274161778651,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.302350115474518
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 51620902906.86012,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.67509532478844,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.715129190051098
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 52654179601.99272,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.001663351369398,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.103559261812793
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 70999418458.89983,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 34.840992672522475,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 19.04976241373575
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 89589230822.62915,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.18304877312565,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.173876453802265
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 86921403206.25682,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.977844091165549,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.185616797100245
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 89321660205.66612,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.7614107813166644,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.952821661287168
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 98771746997.09073,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.579837823956106,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.306022938595876
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 80645988357.0145,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.351157280441864,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.466903306764201
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 82800051383.44621,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.671010759885317,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.4955119082754496
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 94266483100.25513,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.848338890163214,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.5441506340994948
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 105079265248.82051,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.470441871758052,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.222325622074301
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 104637136924.43813,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.42075696221842707,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.114782900292283
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 105801670369.72366,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.112925563059397,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.9230154601792355
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 118935994524.54283,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.414099048645744,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.215446529832412
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 110483177247.8674,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.107030390981562,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.828677255293898
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 105169171610.81323,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.809787127258547,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.19967024190424842
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "export_value_usd": 93428754898.54396,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.16336330547093,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.731013363099359
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23512115502.62832,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 31.641691307475057,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9069094511623739,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "870840",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: parts, gear boxes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 7178495271.465181,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 20.25767307320396,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9252501400633997,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14247189734.173857,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 34.808208195364834,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0507909844181493,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "853710",
      "hs_description": "Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than switching apparatus of heading no. 8517), for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5962778083.676549,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 9.958137946300589,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8665664448238334,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "300215",
      "hs_description": "Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological products: immunological products, put up in measured doses or in forms or packings for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10188855038.032658,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 12.809304515017573,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.41219891430505423,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "880240",
      "hs_description": "Aeroplanes and other aircraft: of an unladen weight exceeding 15,000kg",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11372821473.28201,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 58.139492292242835,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.628617015408205,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "710812",
      "hs_description": "Metals: gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 80847019955.26123,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 6.918036966091427,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8826942535090243,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "382200",
      "hs_description": "Reagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing and prepared diagnostic or laboratory reagents whether or not on a backing, other than those of heading no. 3002 or 3006: certified reference material",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 4638995563.708257,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 6.694011233487653,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6966261104991727,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "847989",
      "hs_description": "Machines and mechanical appliances: n.e.s. in item no. 8479.8, having individual functions",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5888929329.935292,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 15.29802576024151,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.54789858784169,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
      "importer_iso3": "CHN",
      "hs_code": "870829",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: parts and accessories, of bodies, other than safety seat belts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3366671760.6293488,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 48.14063583816037,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7900839559143626,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "DEU",
    "importer_iso3": "CHN",
    "distance_km": 8415,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 17734062.645370997,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12556.33325336033,
    "importer_population": 1412359.985,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 8.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 4223116.205968999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 50801.7848771783,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 29.912295578395064,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 29.912295578395064,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-CHN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-CHN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-CHN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-CHN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/DEU-CHN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}