{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.688Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "China exports to Uganda: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from China to Uganda, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "CHN",
    "country_name": "China"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "UGA",
    "country_name": "Uganda"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
    "importer_iso3": "UGA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 94,
    "current_lane_count": 91,
    "current_product_count": 91,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2016,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 876328150.1787584,
    "attention_trade_usd": 869210406.4602029,
    "critical_trade_usd": 28443093.150526613,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 654849278.6100988,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 63689551.88700829,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 778927896.805796,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 876328150.1787584,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 2,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 70,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 73,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 20,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 73,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 91,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.4192249056154733,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 9.611865437828316,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 254.0570174012125,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 6.682225954109986,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 17.466662691142183,
    "top_product_hs6": "390761",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 58558227.09441693,
    "top_product_description": "Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g or higher",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "390761",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 9468.47265625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.0007999999797903001,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 16.47315390888889,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 16.47315390888889,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 24,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 40434.701516999994,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 858,
    "buyer_population_latest": 47123.531,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 8.805671720289032,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.56605150525753,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 3.0688087399671105,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.022,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 16.612000000000002,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 99.18777643773015,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 3.245712595758179,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 40434.701516999994,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 858,
    "buyer_population_2024": 47123.531
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 15051072.433987267,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 9448464.36950059,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.22397914872341,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 10089436.86819555,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.783880148439825,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 12271648.674000172,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.628677936263262,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.578861453326845
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 13894625.5544047,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.225418389324606,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.717823590702904
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 17772653.55503059,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.91027354743307,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.770755378316764
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 22977962.82636365,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.288306640398567,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 23.25452425683927
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 33704316.944596864,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 46.68104913951026,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.362959424758266
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 61494227.53833168,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 82.45208066199903,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 51.249526974111845
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 89082343.81156471,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 44.86293653503708,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 57.094158968042905
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 92385417.7657424,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.7078884690827874,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 39.949912833785284
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 140039266.29336065,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 51.5815695594428,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.564431084172128
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 218581372.40981656,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 56.08577379427446,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.87780960397333
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 266327468.18928754,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.84362521521377,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.32160884772072
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 268414158.4398883,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.7835054584447443,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.218190323859968
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 307528539.4540564,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.572398580430246,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.053155836114415
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 408963010.2611338,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.98375851137267,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.369060530610067
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 538072124.7784905,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 31.569875826891327,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.089336013459018
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 512089964.12439674,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.82875054432339,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.52781532661696
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 579874437.649454,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.236829126491356,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.34402474435241
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 670987829.18158,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.712607008761758,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.63612383728014
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 847856972.7290438,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.35951590406571,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.302006446474174
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 847574141.239219,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.03335839639491134,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.487469218204629
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 861750837.4156034,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.6726201858467515,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.698201184319544
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 907436903.234206,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.301540054851039,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.289552885621071
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 964423176.7232373,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 6.2799158030631075,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.399074052409158
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 1207678360.7577298,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.222867917897407,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.90681194241332
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 1318292242.1548605,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.15921697294706,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.257008552750428
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 1571264454.8458273,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.189387952208705,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.6685899175423
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "export_value_usd": 1784699020.3138368,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.583618264243857,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.90371795181422
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "390761",
      "hs_description": "Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g or higher",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 61380283.37410945,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5649557970117556,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "851762",
      "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 70874566.92437118,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9701789252910888,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "847130",
      "hs_description": "Data processing machines: portable, digital and automatic, weighing not more than 10kg, consisting of at least a central processing unit, a keyboard and a display",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 56084786.36835439,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7138123459018868,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "851712",
      "hs_description": "Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 55970532.69455539,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.834112303693783,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8378481756950433,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "870423",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a g.v.w. exceeding 20 tonnes), nes in item no 8704.1",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 52163417.174962185,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.498192999286156,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9270778755847492,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "720839",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 78513569.0630431,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8459503776008661,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "870120",
      "hs_description": "Tractors: road, for semi-trailers",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 30835825.747179803,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2229383289330924,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "902830",
      "hs_description": "Meters: electricity supply or production meters, including calibrating meters thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22536952.281963814,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 24.16322568706379,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6819519482239476,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "842952",
      "hs_description": "Mechanical shovels, excavators and shovel loaders: with a 360 degree revolving super structure",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25968121.215253092,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0913444367072938,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
      "importer_iso3": "UGA",
      "hs_code": "401120",
      "hs_description": "Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on buses or lorries",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25406500.917241357,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.102773007581777,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "CHN",
    "importer_iso3": "UGA",
    "distance_km": 9889,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 40434.701517,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 858.0575491467309,
    "importer_population": 47123.531,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 24,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 40.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 17734062.645370997,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 12556.33325336033,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 16.47315390888889,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 16.47315390888889,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/CHN-UGA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/CHN-UGA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/CHN-UGA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/CHN-UGA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/CHN-UGA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}