{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:02.638Z", "seo": { "title": "Belarus exports to Ukraine: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Belarus to Ukraine, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "BLR", "country_name": "Belarus" }, "importer": { "iso3": "UKR", "country_name": "Ukraine" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "all_history_lane_count": 510, "current_lane_count": 478, "current_product_count": 478, "first_observed_last_year": 1996, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 769285934.1145463, "attention_trade_usd": 440456648.4878261, "critical_trade_usd": 68602561.65095267, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 445073521.6129041, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 654027276.9727571, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 199695736.07393125, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 4, "high_attention_lane_count": 56, "high_volatility_lane_count": 265, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 388, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 145, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.084263865388841, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 73.52955617417508, "product_concentration_hhi": 575.1237259307309, "top1_product_share_pct": 20.367950879476517, "top3_product_share_pct": 33.32200827979469, "top_product_hs6": "271019", "top_product_trade_usd": 156687781.18317285, "top_product_description": "", "top_attention_product_hs6": "271019", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": 433.528076171875, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.7969624996185303, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.077187367481993, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.00321332401532567, "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.739354976980843, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 6.5, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 200085.537744, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 4567, "buyer_population_latest": 43814.583, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.388047577338883, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.285640541163119, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -3.37794288946095, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.714000000000002, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.852, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 57.255258279848164, "critical_trade_share_pct": 8.917693488041571, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 200085.537744, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 4567, "buyer_population_2024": 43814.583 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 355086379.8279932, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 346877240.9455312, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.311870955579487, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 402780564.654278, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.116169384985703, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 364283275.9693759, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.557881403226531, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.8559999831411647 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 304013336.58432555, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.54479998420708, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.3013943863302035 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 566403976.350497, "yoy_growth_pct": 86.3089240472814, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.034710360407107 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 409068414.55057824, "yoy_growth_pct": -27.777976209432154, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.9406842171018086 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 261607592.55172014, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.047960867588735, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.884220929043137 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 341464098.2371185, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.52530123704671, "cagr_3y_pct": -15.52278556341009 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 528362055.7727958, "yoy_growth_pct": 54.73429227276836, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.904349326258076 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 890315063.5954663, "yoy_growth_pct": 68.50473153172759, "cagr_3y_pct": 50.417301249403515 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1185530656.5748935, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.15855308425566, "cagr_3y_pct": 51.422093691485294 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1423714790.26544, "yoy_growth_pct": 20.090929945133794, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.15445833634965 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2724589577.024624, "yoy_growth_pct": 91.37186715020684, "cagr_3y_pct": 45.18412220704933 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1634366663.528698, "yoy_growth_pct": -40.014207008987356, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.295832444475561 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2484563722.9474564, "yoy_growth_pct": 52.01997069513953, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.3951653979318 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 4095083265.7757726, "yoy_growth_pct": 64.8210198013253, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.547922045610505 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 4989361455.672616, "yoy_growth_pct": 21.837851195131464, "cagr_3y_pct": 45.065840106932555 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 3775959510.5097003, "yoy_growth_pct": -24.319784323970907, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.972082091508444 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 3909737250.952308, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.542880692185957, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.532038962438842 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2435410753.3678403, "yoy_growth_pct": -37.70909406317167, "cagr_3y_pct": -21.263564369922673 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2765884528.4432836, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.569529272154334, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.856260121754302 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 3231786684.1646185, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.844598931379018, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.150555788492418 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 3825767178.7800674, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.379322420192047, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.24709424439952 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 3784803197.6854424, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.0707389963988123, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.020476157804238 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2956394048.8554883, "yoy_growth_pct": -21.88777343394127, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.9251911478106796 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 4784458389.7745905, "yoy_growth_pct": 61.834258583587754, "cagr_3y_pct": 7.7386216099420535 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 2446481259.332506, "yoy_growth_pct": -48.86607720194287, "cagr_3y_pct": -13.536489607830472 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 1276666754.3628457, "yoy_growth_pct": -47.816205438206815, "cagr_3y_pct": -24.414513991380772 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "export_value_usd": 943633567.955137, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.086148579463686, "cagr_3y_pct": -41.790991752932186 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5561047625.233143, "current_below_peak_pct": 93.38901712175421, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.040708934196161, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1273488737.8177369, "current_below_peak_pct": 93.58100259497768, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9933139322584449, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "310420", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chloride", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 60755139.21835367, "current_below_peak_pct": 77.9781591270146, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9770684444784327, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "870193", "hs_description": "Tractors: n.e.c. in heading no 8701 (other than tractors of heading no 8709): of an engine power exceeding 37kW but not exceeding 75kW", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34738942.984509245, "current_below_peak_pct": 79.04917011358951, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6809872794146029, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "721420", "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or other deformations produced during the rolling process or twisted after rolling", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20153488.352476116, "current_below_peak_pct": 71.44993024403915, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5365400319742535, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "870410", "hs_description": "Vehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of goods", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17633829.80075621, "current_below_peak_pct": 51.06708241501147, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5341506629301334, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "441192", "hs_description": "Fibreboard (other than MDF) of a density exceeding 0.8g/cm3, of wood or other ligneous materials, bonded or not with resins or other organic substances", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 38595343.36827365, "current_below_peak_pct": 43.647961354083414, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.609872930700147, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "700529", "hs_description": "Glass: float glass and surface ground or polished glass, in sheets, non-wired, (other than coloured throughout the mass (body tinted), opacified, flashed or merely surface ground)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 53017544.218020916, "current_below_peak_pct": 65.30148585279817, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8919237303751321, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "070190", "hs_description": "Vegetables: potatoes (other than seed), fresh or chilled", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31618977.469402514, "current_below_peak_pct": 60.526209330483006, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.1509311419424413, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "hs_code": "290110", "hs_description": "Acyclic hydrocarbons: saturated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13179616.689336764, "current_below_peak_pct": 66.60462967694912, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3116128490268513, "attention_level": "Critical attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BLR", "importer_iso3": "UKR", "distance_km": 434, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 0, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455, "importer_population": 43814.583, "importer_biz_entry_days": 6.5, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 68218.816484, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 7303.696265885707, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.077187367481993, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.00321332401532567, "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.739354976980843 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BLR-UKR/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BLR-UKR/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BLR-UKR/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BLR-UKR/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BLR-UKR/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }