{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.357Z", "seo": { "title": "Bulgaria exports to South Africa: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to South Africa, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "BGR", "country_name": "Bulgaria" }, "importer": { "iso3": "ZAF", "country_name": "South Africa" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "all_history_lane_count": 180, "current_lane_count": 125, "current_product_count": 125, "first_observed_last_year": 2001, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 151278320.01266417, "attention_trade_usd": 131342862.07675041, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 35675729.10633633, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 15842023.269181158, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 110975159.17924175, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 151278320.01266417, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 15, "high_volatility_lane_count": 82, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 41, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 33, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7973734327437437, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 34.471323038134095, "product_concentration_hhi": 4440.539864862656, "top1_product_share_pct": 66.21655398944654, "top3_product_share_pct": 74.99471795868176, "top_product_hs6": "151211", "top_product_trade_usd": 100171290.44551347, "top_product_description": "Vegetable oils: sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified", "top_attention_product_hs6": "151211", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 8539.7353515625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.06669999659061432, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.963475213757574, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787877, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 9.235574183070709, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.095901215717169, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 40, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6994, "buyer_population_latest": 60041.996, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5997022185294298, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -0.829491262325488, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4411476748953822, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.936, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 19.216, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend weakened", "attention_trade_share_pct": 86.82199938877899, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets", "buyer_macro_weakness" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 419946.428126, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6994, "buyer_population_2024": 60041.996 }, "history": [ { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2406184.810362014, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 2412014.1239917655, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.24226375316842574, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3384349.587438369, "yoy_growth_pct": 40.312179509025256, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 3581988.769723976, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.839798081710601, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.182201712418308 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 5753222.07784059, "yoy_growth_pct": 60.61530193697191, "cagr_3y_pct": 33.61147670262903 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 17701677.79592169, "yoy_growth_pct": 207.68285243328944, "cagr_3y_pct": 73.58535078691013 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 13789591.327911252, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.100088551559494, "cagr_3y_pct": 56.72648440275723 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 11081327.257187227, "yoy_growth_pct": -19.639915399394603, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.42095986976549 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 16666648.055820212, "yoy_growth_pct": 50.40299477673496, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.9882949570736108 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 11412420.90744681, "yoy_growth_pct": -31.52539809310102, "cagr_3y_pct": -6.112279473367288 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 14595321.498483198, "yoy_growth_pct": 27.889793207324566, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.61600290607112 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 65402916.95057259, "yoy_growth_pct": 348.1087789492648, "cagr_3y_pct": 57.730719540493006 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 98843602.23728882, "yoy_growth_pct": 51.1302658136618, "cagr_3y_pct": 105.36365943249618 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 123443907.39454949, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.888110712723698, "cagr_3y_pct": 103.74423608264402 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 73765276.13577874, "yoy_growth_pct": -40.24389077379792, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.092223318069221 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 76589206.11513731, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.8282646351931238, "cagr_3y_pct": -8.151302672659078 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 96482175.33823267, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.973593711351526, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.885964542663992 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 94605622.94798824, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.9449731348468169, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.647980705267377 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 150206345.57845616, "yoy_growth_pct": 58.771054930884794, "cagr_3y_pct": 25.17191717789973 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 136127494.87164724, "yoy_growth_pct": -9.373006614727352, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.158688379725845 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 142114165.70676142, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.397841039210282, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.526715734315054 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 118904852.6593517, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.331456425884983, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.493886958462603 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 261817042.45336655, "yoy_growth_pct": 120.19037625271807, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.360946884372247 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 157631048.413528, "yoy_growth_pct": -39.79343478314464, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.5145657911227257 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "export_value_usd": 169018740.94080544, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.224269991152421, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.437650251727517 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "151211", "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 160694698.84455496, "current_below_peak_pct": 38.55511961601955, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6165555747817489, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "230990", "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 124389837.87100919, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1398743125581918, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "480421", "hs_description": "Kraft paper and paperboard: sack kraft paper, uncoated, unbleached, in rolls or sheets, other than that of heading no. 4802 or 4803", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 42882554.31984295, "current_below_peak_pct": 62.25441855961268, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6823797616183744, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "283620", "hs_description": "Carbonates: disodium carbonate", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 91520628.22879669, "current_below_peak_pct": 54.93540440483443, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0826950343483235, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1421521846.6090708, "current_below_peak_pct": 43.28236137641387, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2513981221707728, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "330499", "hs_description": "Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 189474994.33609068, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.331337996039981, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "190532", "hs_description": "Food preparations: waffles and wafers, whether or not containing cocoa", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12195790.917693442, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.158938987801288, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "847149", "hs_description": "Data processing machines: digital, automatic, (not portable, analogue or hybrid), presented in the form of systems, n.e.s. in item no. 8471.41", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 191803811.56804803, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2400356774480679, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "300420", "hs_description": "Medicaments: containing antibiotics (other than penicillins, streptomycins or their derivatives), for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 93530806.58869717, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.011115847656705, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "hs_code": "350790", "hs_description": "Enzymes and prepared enzymes: other than rennet and concentrates thereof", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 87827559.39013954, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3865453478727185, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "buyer_macro_weakness" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "ZAF", "distance_km": 7644, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 1, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 419946.428126, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6994.21165355662, "importer_population": 60041.996, "importer_biz_entry_days": 40, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 9.963475213757574, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 11.331475398787877, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 9.235574183070709, "tariff_advantage_pp": 2.095901215717169 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ZAF/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ZAF/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ZAF/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ZAF/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ZAF/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }