{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:02.645Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Bulgaria exports to the United States: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to the United States, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "USA",
    "country_name": "United States"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "USA",
    "all_history_lane_count": 410,
    "current_lane_count": 295,
    "current_product_count": 295,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1064604713.3562405,
    "attention_trade_usd": 814915567.407724,
    "critical_trade_usd": 56266455.96948034,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 682454714.8436759,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 204253492.02603045,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 308047455.43277615,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 1064604713.3562405,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 2,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 110,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 197,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 109,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 83,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 295,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.314705903342713,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 24.46402702149909,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 246.03917792226676,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 7.135106322110742,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 19.501705238262428,
    "top_product_hs6": "721420",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 75960678.20817006,
    "top_product_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or other deformations produced during the rolling process or twisted after rolling",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "901890",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 7588.9033203125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.2267998307943344,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.3609570166666662,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.674475463696969,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.9721664982141415,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 3.702308965482828,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 4.2,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 22996100,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 69288,
    "buyer_population_latest": 331893.738,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.1023377268677015,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.47830267128826,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.5916240968762754,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.094,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 17.618,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 76.54630466914296,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 5.2851969621754185,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 22996100,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 69288,
    "buyer_population_2024": 331893.738
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 174927418.02110347,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 121737787.83436675,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -30.40668569195931,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 164703850.07742837,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 35.293940367571096,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 172276118.06494543,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 4.597505148760805,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.5077932322845036
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 177668827.92886463,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.130271290351594,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.430177204569915
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 209636983.7011395,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.993114574422897,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 8.373071855545366
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 303016808.8059679,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 44.54358360638864,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.711101893375883
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 319113857.1709057,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.312262520474653,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.556487445995987
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 402748879.0559069,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 26.208520879182416,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.31460260260718
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 483113128.6230229,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.953935006721736,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.822735977025772
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 458838380.0600876,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.024650982291368,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.868137390290379
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 452023322.66571105,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.4852849479339736,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.922320191228734
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 425195765.4330563,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.934994034034558,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.167379545965244
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 375003741.8628396,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -11.80445047920381,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.50423176389483
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 235154190.72038165,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.29284151879448,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.57384747523231
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 253667844.20533842,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.872984711963338,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -15.816787299547686
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 377834065.6501139,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.94834890632242,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.2509515327663747
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 474700373.2157969,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.637261531463974,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.38308438323451
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 455079270.3804246,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.133365790814869,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.50865446004726
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 517818558.17209166,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.78645257544251,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.077347377237512
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 528340480.15908855,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.0319708169864503,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.6330081210531606
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 544985638.2718444,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 3.1504604961830385,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.193842336819322
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 610208519.5643106,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 11.967816528026077,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.625039712835722
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 875793693.5030227,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 43.523675173912714,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.34846851820049
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 796231279.3553517,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.084606881494562,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.470959076345657
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 763980690.3140067,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.050404684861897,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.779137789708934
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 1079614696.4269972,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 41.31439578443541,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.223256076448825
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 1340364290.7944934,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.152097524278936,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.958242208960897
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 1408774630.2215443,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.1038616812524085,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.627078056084994
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "export_value_usd": 1280339165.5063398,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.116821240243844,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.848672162144042
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "721420",
      "hs_description": "Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or other deformations produced during the rolling process or twisted after rolling",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 548280936.5307249,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7002117333092222,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "901890",
      "hs_description": "Medical, surgical or dental instruments and appliances: n.e.c. in heading no. 9018",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 19218124265.414337,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 40.00858711767012,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.683894404153415,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "271012",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25740609280.741768,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 53.47388015707533,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.96773936333052,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "120600",
      "hs_description": "Oil seeds: sunflower seeds, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 114620107.19398719,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 28.740358965067287,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4044710707654822,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "711810",
      "hs_description": "Coin (other than gold coin), not being legal tender",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 359109478.4684475,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 79.60537498728809,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.5838582038927336,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "902519",
      "hs_description": "Thermometers and pyrometers: (other than liquid filled, for direct reading), not combined with other instruments",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 870160448.056406,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.010625677486723,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "293359",
      "hs_description": "Heterocyclic compounds: containing a pyrimidine ring (whether or not hydrogenated) or piperazine ring in the structure, (other than malonylurea (barbituric acid) and its derivatives),and loprazolam, mecloqualone, methaqualone, zipeprol and salts thereof",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 8305602499.953102,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 22.95923886983488,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7104265690541026,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "760711",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: foil, (not backed), rolled (but not further worked), of a thickness not exceeding 0.2mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 845467228.493997,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4470546686631105,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "841221",
      "hs_description": "Engines: hydraulic power engines and motors, linear acting (cylinders)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1691036674.9209795,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6725546198236059,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "USA",
      "hs_code": "902620",
      "hs_description": "Instruments and apparatus: for measuring or checking pressure",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1789404549.3159566,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 28.647886275814184,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6860322000241934,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "USA",
    "distance_km": 7603,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 22996100,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 69287.53804930179,
    "importer_population": 331893.738,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 4.2,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 2.3609570166666662,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 4.674475463696969,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.9721664982141415,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 3.702308965482828
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-USA/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-USA/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-USA/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-USA/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-USA/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}