{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.353Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Bulgaria exports to Ukraine: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to Ukraine, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "UKR",
    "country_name": "Ukraine"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "UKR",
    "all_history_lane_count": 444,
    "current_lane_count": 351,
    "current_product_count": 351,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 1355069293.2217624,
    "attention_trade_usd": 160001040.97885385,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 360518760.7361507,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 87145739.29328407,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 992445900.8239632,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 28,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 274,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 144,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 102,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1623603855495577,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 30.71618339879618,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 3414.602566856952,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 57.958919104192866,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 64.40468978336844,
    "top_product_hs6": "999999",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 785383515.4641593,
    "top_product_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "310540",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1022.552978515625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.2904999852180481,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.231121903662835,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1915571543268197,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.5510111466693495,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 6.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 200085.537744,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 4567,
    "buyer_population_latest": 43814.583,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.388047577338883,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.285640541163119,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -3.37794288946095,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.714000000000002,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.852,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 11.807591078862197,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 200085.537744,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 4567,
    "buyer_population_2024": 43814.583
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 184189243.51669136,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 144684137.21778738,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.448107144934326,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 143463698.8186311,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.8435191463451175,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 217030501.29734015,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 51.27903649808532,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.621460816506452
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 102756456.88390297,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -52.65344904533826,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.779894165211157
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 68337688.88198085,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.495479550067955,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.902088305935642
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 69687282.21358582,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.9748887527287096,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -31.523074767649906
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 64661844.4243794,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.2114130865426285,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.306807569362078
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 67990934.56340866,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 5.148461459249831,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.16942455197255235
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 77677165.13109753,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 14.2463559736121,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.68436684518767
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 103728924.53975081,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.538504352836696,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 17.062356481585226
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 120806561.37899931,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 16.463717246681785,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.119249378445247
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 198381241.6420685,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 64.21396270000494,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.68968591189534
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 255336118.0137323,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 28.709809405480623,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 35.02187214114565
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 141077646.6087563,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -44.74826056485712,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.306673579406107
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 231958937.57948124,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 64.41934151535824,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.350556875152512
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 315713546.0480403,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.10751512424923,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.33144796414511
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 288584457.6948785,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.592944044609885,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.941875472067743
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 412095489.1715701,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 42.798920102370964,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 21.11434457157497
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 236474643.62251765,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -42.61654159381861,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.183703400837295
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 230146456.06674463,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.6760533217568327,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.264976847972182
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 161220191.34338292,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -29.948870776168913,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -26.862430495122624
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 176539246.24109745,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9.501945612436646,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.283651075986999
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 240432848.19552845,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.19229339360173,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.4681720136076937
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 416818396.1624019,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 73.36166804605273,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 37.24898729204635
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 273089384.2516224,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -34.4824060631862,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.652364619784498
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 488742790.2553422,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 78.96806629620524,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.676344054141854
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 2128692348.2785356,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 335.54450126341646,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 72.20879993373839
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 2280709964.8368874,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.141361534995316,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 102.88740182931
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 1419926635.9742138,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.74190239591624,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 42.69053974000134
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "999999",
      "hs_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1573917815.0379264,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 39.90203432312207,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9808683845926284,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "310559",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the two fertilizing elements nitrogen and phosphorus, other than nitrates and phosphates",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 116921324.234172,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 14.439463706741657,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9822606051374864,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1335635597.7285848,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5475790298023939,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "310540",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: ammonium dihydrogenorthophosphate (monoammonium phosphate) and mixtures thereof with diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 65658890.762748934,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1131342111977385,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "310520",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 311910961.52455753,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4913198708821873,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "310230",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 106925902.89800598,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 15.939628573000617,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8124078153450739,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5561047625.233143,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 97.2390793832829,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 3.0864609490193304,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "392020",
      "hs_description": "Plastics: of polymers of propylene, plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), non-cellular and not reinforced, laminated, supported or similarly combined with other materials",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 83454577.94263479,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6596395540238322,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "850720",
      "hs_description": "Electric accumulators: lead-acid, (other than for starting piston engines), including separators, whether or not rectangular (including square)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 50406599.781982005,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8041530111226787,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "700529",
      "hs_description": "Glass: float glass and surface ground or polished glass, in sheets, non-wired, (other than coloured throughout the mass (body tinted), opacified, flashed or merely surface ground)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 53017544.218020916,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9873335781495375,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "UKR",
    "distance_km": 1022,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455,
    "importer_population": 43814.583,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 6.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.231121903662835,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1915571543268197,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 4.5510111466693495
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-UKR/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-UKR/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-UKR/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-UKR/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-UKR/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}