{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:12.763Z", "seo": { "title": "Bulgaria exports to Montenegro: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to Montenegro, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "BGR", "country_name": "Bulgaria" }, "importer": { "iso3": "MNE", "country_name": "Montenegro" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "all_history_lane_count": 36, "current_lane_count": 28, "current_product_count": 28, "first_observed_last_year": 2011, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 8352242.452935179, "attention_trade_usd": 1288170.6830855482, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 2367286.494532711, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 2822506.717650138, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2020770.3842777128, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 1, "high_volatility_lane_count": 12, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 10, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 9, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.7335134733717107, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 26.487332040866953, "product_concentration_hhi": 1620.7454090333758, "top1_product_share_pct": 34.026751418461046, "top3_product_share_pct": 60.02890639393428, "top_product_hs6": "190590", "top_product_trade_usd": 2841996.7773274262, "top_product_description": "Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty cachets suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice papers and similar products", "top_attention_product_hs6": "240220", "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "distance_km": null, "shares_land_border": null, "shares_official_language": null, "common_spoken_language_score": null, "has_reported_fta": null, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.120685812, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5056420136691853, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.742183084108592, "buyer_biz_entry_days": null, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": null, "buyer_population_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 8.565059222520688, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.67723581432076, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.10321995306518117, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 24.522, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 1.8219999999999998, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 15.423051837208748, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains materially below historical peaks", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": null, "buyer_population_2024": null }, "history": [ { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 7048020.743822119, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 7304336.74401345, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.636708935852706, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 14862333.927554095, "yoy_growth_pct": 103.47273747661063, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 11172031.944288177, "yoy_growth_pct": -24.82989550129987, "cagr_3y_pct": 16.59725650268968 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 12248740.109068347, "yoy_growth_pct": 9.637532099347856, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.805590636058444 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 12567241.12188449, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.600275701664545, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.4377832884639155 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 13084709.58601649, "yoy_growth_pct": 4.117597960549069, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.408906098757349 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 16573869.417126719, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.665932538839556, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.605697184244335 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 14065156.74492127, "yoy_growth_pct": -15.13655386721614, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.8249051129906952 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 14969021.172579544, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.426266297989502, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.5866947540846414 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 15455958.14948292, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.252964714856277, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.3008751618278978 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 16277583.900414202, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.315915991651221, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.990125626731601 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 21287679.84274663, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.77911299971823, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.454880684063196 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 21375347.69140553, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.4118243477283956, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.413825103670948 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 14943722.482329119, "yoy_growth_pct": -30.08898522695096, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.8096937950030987 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 17826019.985094957, "yoy_growth_pct": 19.287680871845293, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.744069239732797 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 20598382.588420212, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.552336447750736, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.2266058806209346 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 22377943.30676311, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.639322581294874, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.407314598686671 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "export_value_usd": 22977256.000751533, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.678140192657019, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.829823447210572 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "190590", "hs_description": "Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty cachets suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice papers and similar products", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23662557.280912023, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.3976916597282774, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "240220", "hs_description": "Cigarettes: containing tobacco", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31761158.620727204, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.0820486927154, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7675191445225831, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "210690", "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 52981026.80490927, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1198499343282706, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "701090", "hs_description": "Glass: carboys, bottles, flasks, jars, pots, phials and other containers of glass, (not ampoules), used for the conveyance or packing of goods", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13458889.449100308, "current_below_peak_pct": 79.04148040779013, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.40992007318259777, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "330499", "hs_description": "Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20969987.448901776, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0209544264300312, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "180632", "hs_description": "Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12104395.630361643, "current_below_peak_pct": 25.431197332900474, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2571769574983607, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "730890", "hs_description": "Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.s. in heading no. 7308", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 31307274.78894773, "current_below_peak_pct": 60.02961594209528, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6851541321859511, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "961900", "hs_description": "Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins and napkin liners for babies and similar articles, of any material", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11698853.134530451, "current_below_peak_pct": 56.587574001015504, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5885218614244827, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "940161", "hs_description": "Seats: with wooden frames, upholstered, (excluding medical, surgical, dental, veterinary or barber furniture)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18005824.27479062, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.622371971605386, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "hs_code": "090121", "hs_description": "Coffee: roasted, not decaffeinated", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10290186.582906205, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0530335421235364, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MNE", "distance_km": 335, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": null, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 5809.170962, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 9367.016883998498, "importer_population": 620.173, "importer_biz_entry_days": 12, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.2, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.120685812, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5056420136691853, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.742183084108592 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MNE/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MNE/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MNE/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MNE/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MNE/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }