{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.325Z", "seo": { "title": "Bulgaria exports to The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "BGR", "country_name": "Bulgaria" }, "importer": { "iso3": "MKD", "country_name": "The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "all_history_lane_count": 153, "current_lane_count": 142, "current_product_count": 142, "first_observed_last_year": 2001, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 588715384.8407328, "attention_trade_usd": 320024045.16586655, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 193886949.5035704, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 51895624.789424405, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 458238230.916109, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 22, "high_volatility_lane_count": 72, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 61, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 61, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.046951567200483, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 19.380094603467878, "product_concentration_hhi": 984.1442193069429, "top1_product_share_pct": 24.501146350294896, "top3_product_share_pct": 47.56025403940639, "top_product_hs6": "271600", "top_product_trade_usd": 144242018.02652976, "top_product_description": "Electrical energy", "top_attention_product_hs6": "271019", "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "distance_km": 168.09725952148438, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.6713200211524963, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.781237040425796, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 10.514200170634922, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1289265254746037, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.385273645160318, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 15, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 13879.269152, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 6721, "buyer_population_latest": 2065.092, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.102292619107685, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 6.699259143923331, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5594851638195619, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 27.060000000000002, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 15.984, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 54.35972176138114, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 13879.269152, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 6721, "buyer_population_2024": 2065.092 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 202788761.85794076, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 134264096.4060242, "yoy_growth_pct": -33.79115530076565, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 99009023.64482751, "yoy_growth_pct": -26.25800471228199, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 90716218.72377162, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.375807189862272, "cagr_3y_pct": -23.520151562017734 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 97195259.08383305, "yoy_growth_pct": 7.142097026541561, "cagr_3y_pct": -10.209912222858254 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 110376481.29452664, "yoy_growth_pct": 13.561589664907924, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.6892951779614824 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 107370651.98374511, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.7232516162214115, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.779185088488692 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 125447253.36315079, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.835700487450044, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.877638266447718 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 163927649.45829704, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.67456246630713, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.092883295617241 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 206717197.32986772, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.10270324315014, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.402852690870148 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 230514582.4913108, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.512049054858542, "cagr_3y_pct": 22.48392149099885 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 288403540.3735586, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.112926590850225, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.720991002224242 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 332322010.7824806, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.228131510464827, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.14600959766679 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 432113728.83532107, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.028621281471036, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.3009871110047 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 302955038.4130919, "yoy_growth_pct": -29.889976134373562, "cagr_3y_pct": 1.65432573714408 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 378916990.8344561, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.073671928105345, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.4708169625490735 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 544675099.2286708, "yoy_growth_pct": 43.745229800643145, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.022233385995637 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 450604700.69707125, "yoy_growth_pct": -17.270919611492285, "cagr_3y_pct": 14.149105548512386 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 415434659.4030797, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.805076431644997, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.1144545857311634 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 429119611.2930059, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.294128590423706, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.6407748946006215 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 385032018.3761389, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.273963658762653, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.1071021599342075 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 373536592.4969235, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.985576609367979, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.4815937517164053 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 396265286.3105317, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.084730189799381, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.6201229156050165 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 443351604.8767229, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.882524206092636, "cagr_3y_pct": 4.813481380693774 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 419710514.931137, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.332356911656932, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.9614270500885507 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 429995832.5502972, "yoy_growth_pct": 2.4505742060924263, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.7604677731187355 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 586775372.9384559, "yoy_growth_pct": 36.46071159766879, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.792969438753074 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 734108994.0602328, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.109032845730894, "cagr_3y_pct": 20.486086530198122 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 720414617.7094126, "yoy_growth_pct": -1.8654418433261433, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.76981772405717 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "export_value_usd": 758974610.6134617, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.352472306385492, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.956160299606509 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "271600", "hs_description": "Electrical energy", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 348828547.6487979, "current_below_peak_pct": 29.126105921129135, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8707082674429032, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 779494589.2363048, "current_below_peak_pct": 16.052309417941267, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6354928806994904, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "720449", "hs_description": "Ferrous waste and scrap: n.e.s. in heading no. 7204", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 76519814.32933013, "current_below_peak_pct": 9.336714814730703, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7867906027320817, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "740311", "hs_description": "Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 36193899.36342999, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9103901629633042, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "271121", "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 130312490.52071674, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8034467104364769, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 118757128.8466707, "current_below_peak_pct": 23.941488657906472, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7768759136112853, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "950430", "hs_description": "Games n.e.c. in heading 9504, operated by coins, banknotes, bank cards, tokens or by other means of payment, other than bowling alley equipment", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 37031008.211013615, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3549053366513164, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "870332", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 2500cc", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 119586194.2063277, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0824574882139992, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "780110", "hs_description": "Lead: unwrought, refined", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13645330.113228148, "current_below_peak_pct": 14.724557118102577, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1993927125045258, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "hs_code": "270799", "hs_description": "Oils and other products of the distillation of high temperature coal tar: n.e.s. in heading no. 2707", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10430962.415161522, "current_below_peak_pct": 10.379009337635758, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8914333086070945, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MKD", "distance_km": 174, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 13879.269152, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 6720.896285492366, "importer_population": 2065.092, "importer_biz_entry_days": 15, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 3.1, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.781237040425796, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 10.514200170634922, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 2.1289265254746037, "tariff_advantage_pp": 8.385273645160318 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MKD/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MKD/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MKD/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MKD/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MKD/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }