{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.372Z", "seo": { "title": "Bulgaria exports to Republic of Moldova: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to Republic of Moldova, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "BGR", "country_name": "Bulgaria" }, "importer": { "iso3": "MDA", "country_name": "Republic of Moldova" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "all_history_lane_count": 82, "current_lane_count": 70, "current_product_count": 70, "first_observed_last_year": 2010, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 109173707.5478492, "attention_trade_usd": 75951538.81245656, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 91982970.51409525, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 14024932.26111422, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 79837533.03301804, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 4, "high_volatility_lane_count": 49, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 34, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 29, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.4892551607740045, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 12.529921232406101, "product_concentration_hhi": 3873.1466747019294, "top1_product_share_pct": 61.650828596528285, "top3_product_share_pct": 68.79341746822438, "top_product_hs6": "271019", "top_product_trade_usd": 67306495.31279957, "top_product_description": "", "top_attention_product_hs6": "271019", "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "distance_km": 650.3212890625, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.1724500060081482, "has_reported_fta": 1, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.8113349849888887, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.81252829624521, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.2448183799827587, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.5677099162624515, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 4, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 13679.221333000001, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 5315, "buyer_population_latest": 2573.928, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 9.170672417488102, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.45369402374179, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -2.048403712637259, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 27.576, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": -4.6899999999999995, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 69.56944168921638, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 13679.221333000001, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 5315, "buyer_population_2024": 2573.928 }, "history": [ { "year": 1995, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 51413860.08024374, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1996, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 68431928.84847501, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.10015770391577, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1997, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 85892803.48398745, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.515683876418382, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 1998, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 40302844.234272346, "yoy_growth_pct": -53.077740393249826, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.795561330045442 }, { "year": 1999, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 14593358.425286924, "yoy_growth_pct": -63.79074801654529, "cagr_3y_pct": -40.25537732526922 }, { "year": 2000, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 14865333.671365533, "yoy_growth_pct": 1.863691949122126, "cagr_3y_pct": -44.272106395343314 }, { "year": 2001, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 20191003.87147642, "yoy_growth_pct": 35.82610601179776, "cagr_3y_pct": -20.57801473539893 }, { "year": 2002, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 19147610.212188233, "yoy_growth_pct": -5.167616557996779, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.476215610099171 }, { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 26671332.45972718, "yoy_growth_pct": 39.29327035678736, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.513169879457017 }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 27474048.868075036, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.0096599394122237, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.812372039491747 }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 27506994.18455322, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.11991431127018615, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.834745206423225 }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 34312475.51037431, "yoy_growth_pct": 24.740912366363755, "cagr_3y_pct": 8.75997847557326 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 53656685.40639476, "yoy_growth_pct": 56.37660824026458, "cagr_3y_pct": 24.99723074967011 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 47026855.1541391, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.35601901616069, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.573314312713386 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 45814494.49190635, "yoy_growth_pct": -2.5780177268052817, "cagr_3y_pct": 10.115963304941399 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 57427969.56984405, "yoy_growth_pct": 25.34891022313768, "cagr_3y_pct": 2.2900066535111563 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 66893185.19610656, "yoy_growth_pct": 16.48189148451591, "cagr_3y_pct": 12.463599564796436 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 77137186.30550377, "yoy_growth_pct": 15.313968200744977, "cagr_3y_pct": 18.96529834972871 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 83905851.3669215, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.774840496009606, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.472231499192588 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 88522564.86513436, "yoy_growth_pct": 5.502254518607885, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.788631313321439 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 68099823.14792898, "yoy_growth_pct": -23.070661981292307, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.06861153962349 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 56854477.0306591, "yoy_growth_pct": -16.51303277666716, "cagr_3y_pct": -12.167049163571308 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 74239142.74884644, "yoy_growth_pct": 30.57747890076019, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.696823900823111 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 63508448.75383818, "yoy_growth_pct": -14.454226702631201, "cagr_3y_pct": -2.299862799717456 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 57035572.17609977, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.192150343378081, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.10606212987951391 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 63005234.1391349, "yoy_growth_pct": 10.46655926340765, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.322257549676324 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 76892097.66453618, "yoy_growth_pct": 22.04080933138797, "cagr_3y_pct": 6.58188609582524 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 156696249.87158903, "yoy_growth_pct": 103.78719612413403, "cagr_3y_pct": 40.05682170177942 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 158244195.2847664, "yoy_growth_pct": 0.9878637264426615, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.930543317615474 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "export_value_usd": 169211734.96444145, "yoy_growth_pct": 6.930769030698758, "cagr_3y_pct": 30.071731982217354 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "271019", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 647627526.6365045, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6365678115687932, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "271320", "hs_description": "Petroleum bitumen: obtained from bituminous minerals", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22372313.749330398, "current_below_peak_pct": 48.316183031633706, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9088895300500132, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "271012", "hs_description": "", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 252658404.8000479, "current_below_peak_pct": 74.32756563603672, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.215669435392891, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "300490", "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 211055220.69338828, "current_below_peak_pct": 5.983222919999929, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.47698950760956293, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "340220", "hs_description": "Washing and cleaning preparations: surface-active, whether or not containing soap (excluding those of heading no. 3401), put up for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 50006894.17714475, "current_below_peak_pct": 10.111425355489967, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.839420170440397, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "310230", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13304281.244465915, "current_below_peak_pct": 76.64198855598754, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0379612303983425, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "391620", "hs_description": "Vinyl chloride polymers: monofilament, of which any cross-sectional dimension exceeds 1mm, rods, sticks and profile shapes, whether or not surface-worked but not otherwise worked", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22250909.43699254, "current_below_peak_pct": 51.884053896380536, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7364976362147535, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "210690", "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 54573699.541399404, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.088398313245972, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "392330", "hs_description": "Plastics: carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles, for the conveyance or packing of goods", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12113566.92415911, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5077835342759145, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "hs_code": "854420", "hs_description": "Insulated electric conductors: co-axial cable and other co-axial electric conductors", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10620848.155103713, "current_below_peak_pct": 0.05312964458447486, "lane_volatility_cv": 2.021732879187131, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "BGR", "importer_iso3": "MDA", "distance_km": 648, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 1, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 1, "rta_coverage_ratio": 2, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 1, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 13679.221333000001, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 5314.531460475973, "importer_population": 2573.928, "importer_biz_entry_days": 4, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 4, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.8113349849888887, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 5.81252829624521, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.2448183799827587, "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.5677099162624515 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MDA/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MDA/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MDA/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MDA/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-MDA/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }