{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:02.666Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Bulgaria exports to Lebanon: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to Lebanon, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "LBN",
    "country_name": "Lebanon"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "LBN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 79,
    "current_lane_count": 54,
    "current_product_count": 54,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1998,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 61542230.25287921,
    "attention_trade_usd": 43451731.12472136,
    "critical_trade_usd": 36733820.61960038,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 50214112.59532837,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 44726791.01002527,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 39730359.75290851,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 61542230.25287921,
    "critical_lane_count": 1,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 4,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 38,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 29,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 19,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0183367164822952,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 56.928441381663916,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 3727.24525006371,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 59.68880306849428,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 73.82624214107902,
    "top_product_hs6": "271012",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 36733820.61960038,
    "top_product_description": "",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271012",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
    "distance_km": 1444.918212890625,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.11263624578714371,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.562374686767676,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.063669905454542,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 3.7843913798101028,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.27927852564444,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 15,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 18076.62484,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2670,
    "buyer_population_latest": 6769.151,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -17.20448672321533,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -17.144054688959663,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 0.03920581721326144,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 23.9,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": -1.5939999999999999,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 70.6047391298246,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 59.68880306849428,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Critical attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Volatile products account for the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 18076.62484,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2670,
    "buyer_population_2024": 6769.151
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 28293146.943949725,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 35305768.67762022,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 24.7855841118094,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 33375712.235881988,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.466688629163485,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 25191936.748633124,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -24.520152347342407,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.795932574610228
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 15074166.997238815,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.162730846580445,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -24.69984266840124
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 18526242.74842807,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.90060705723629,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.816316484600804
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 16190854.09385592,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.605840732440498,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.701601961157994
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 12362213.695610465,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.64693286747819,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.397458374874832
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 13674908.755237298,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.618608381546913,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.625544098992133
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 66097685.27746752,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 383.3501009807692,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 59.82283518768392
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 63237282.9924905,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.327537754112731,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 72.30279345181287
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 68862008.9709216,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.894635746920132,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 71.40299928430827
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 80980058.3377378,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.597583265299875,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.003326247632247
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 94858503.6864743,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.138102433632053,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.472461764813072
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 39059744.270827584,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -58.82314947753382,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.221687449146362
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 91441614.8531278,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 134.10704949602678,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 4.133052821092931
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 45722445.338303864,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -49.99820878957289,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.593681957988753
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 80990185.34667811,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 77.1344134099249,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.516876362265698
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 221419296.81562278,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 173.3902828692619,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.28387343773234
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 137771794.56020814,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -37.77787368057104,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.436499774505144
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 87411006.81434542,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -36.55377205953021,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5757205929739957
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 144182092.41051158,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 64.94729630187625,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.324048303907354
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 86497782.64257531,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.00795716273764,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -14.372180211129981
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 79876345.91990262,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.655036372474056,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.9600221213352373
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 111419704.24706815,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 39.49023702060204,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.233628627107048
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 88256293.38651945,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.789330771498804,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.673129635771863
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 45882387.248978086,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -48.012333751616275,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.872904627464237
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 206416751.72609615,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 349.88232762604036,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.817705450956048
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 59346703.946882255,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -71.24908543002743,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.390680576558822
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "export_value_usd": 70678532.56366993,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.09428470860004,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.490742286135873
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "271012",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1469355862.0083516,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 77.16608989797331,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0493176003023774,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "040690",
      "hs_description": "Dairy produce: cheese (not grated, powdered or processed), n.e.c. in heading no. 0406",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 52876199.3788649,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0.9084367901491865,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.2858613627050072,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "470329",
      "hs_description": "Wood pulp: chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate, (other than dissolving grades), semi-bleached or bleached, of non-coniferous wood",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10317879.587996054,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 59.61422654655427,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1098907839432826,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "210690",
      "hs_description": "Food preparations: n.e.s. in item no. 2106.10",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 92854623.05255453,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.515292678342837,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9856344507723822,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "180690",
      "hs_description": "Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: n.e.c. in chapter 18",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 32997066.42430053,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 35.52115656683825,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.680361196592702,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "180632",
      "hs_description": "Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11121450.00615768,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 52.14341515931934,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6957792902577213,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "100590",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 131315490.9751027,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 91.15853759563241,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0864754763184685,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "441114",
      "hs_description": "Medium density fibreboard (MDF), of a thickness exceeding 9 mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15584573.332978893,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.586216547301196,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "100630",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished or glazed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 68582162.08846633,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.281472241006952,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "LBN",
      "hs_code": "230990",
      "hs_description": "Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22876264.877877995,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 1.3451022625973028,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6601200802307101,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer macroeconomic trend has weakened",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "LBN",
    "distance_km": 1441,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 18076.62484,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2670.4419564580553,
    "importer_population": 6769.151,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 15,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 42.3,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 8.562374686767676,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 9.063669905454542,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 3.7843913798101028,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 5.27927852564444
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-LBN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-LBN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-LBN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-LBN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-LBN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}