{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:12.811Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Bulgaria exports to Iceland: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Bulgaria to Iceland, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "ISL",
    "country_name": "Iceland"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "ISL",
    "all_history_lane_count": 22,
    "current_lane_count": 14,
    "current_product_count": 14,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1995,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 2858002.9410635955,
    "attention_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 874887.9090677503,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 241770.8404366795,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 1893919.61723699,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 0,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 9,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 7,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 2,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.9949337582608616,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 35.088662995210164,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 4423.6890474615775,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 64.93092081304165,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 82.83870341789194,
    "top_product_hs6": "300490",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1855727.6264964044,
    "top_product_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "",
    "distance_km": 3709.1005859375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.20469999313354492,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.3451067033212123,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.9412890495353543,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5327533906060606,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 3.408535658929294,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 11.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 25458.933916,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 68384,
    "buyer_population_latest": 372.295,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 5.884796260042391,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 4.423582580964003,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.399313874282604,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 23.401999999999997,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 24.644,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Stable",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 25458.933916,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 68384,
    "buyer_population_2024": 372.295
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 316060.3583160042,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 479195.6609692042,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 51.61523688778891,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 376081.1296741825,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.518252291029903,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 153301.19260477842,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -59.237201627853345,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.429683647194974
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 218789.95516101885,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 42.719017017092106,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -22.997498457666097
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 163733.49657823992,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -25.164070508748914,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -24.20882071992809
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 477876.11442653084,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 191.86215674455966,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 46.07972079699281
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 458286.8097469823,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -4.099243316033164,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.94893032955983
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 584916.5271721148,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.6311067069646,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 52.86877501685194
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 839562.6308695602,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 43.53546050896837,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.664428044553105
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 1038259.7029214809,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.666736077345906,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.337742430450668
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 1298206.5167044813,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 25.03678155393643,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 30.441754218117055
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 1767307.699813617,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.13455772044318,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 28.16015478798517
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 964189.9754118491,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -45.44300488740392,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.436912010617387
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 627659.5285993885,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -34.902919071390805,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -21.51377389945843
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 709812.7643736444,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.088821571398658,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -26.219111915698846
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 1306320.509454958,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 84.03733703037675,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.652792329860695
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 1212262.1165739447,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -7.200253858087069,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 24.53482144966572
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 1669203.9697745526,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 37.69332118469577,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.980675491281275
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 3058328.3174162563,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.22076707194283,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.783706360945764
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 3310211.5919901403,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.235978888842133,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 39.771858712364214
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 3905748.99670047,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 17.990916536917958,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.759306059054374
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 7000123.40719082,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 79.22614620408123,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.78739195908664
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 8087415.136054526,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 15.53246515263995,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 34.68461642537201
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 4595915.443403759,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -43.172010264259875,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.573738316691945
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 5943880.483311761,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.3296309844572,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -5.306219092380693
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 8176115.129977204,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 37.55517381166631,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.36426009604064724
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 6224247.199911147,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -23.872803881022385,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.638157388797321
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 6082529.0004700655,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.276872927590423,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.7715735192530104
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "export_value_usd": 6540874.705127594,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 7.5354462695057745,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.168305639043404
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "300490",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.s. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 188316063.76616427,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 39.57247276488221,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.936831446136033,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "848180",
      "hs_description": "Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances: for pipes, boiler shells, tanks, vats or the like, including thermostatically controlled valves",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26236117.526016727,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1197072071193348,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "841370",
      "hs_description": "Pumps: centrifugal, n.e.c. in heading no. 8413, for liquids",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10911937.80503239,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 26.570135633513587,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0111419523461216,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "730890",
      "hs_description": "Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.s. in heading no. 7308",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 63479174.26540208,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 33.10005010820457,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3730278239611888,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "940690",
      "hs_description": "Buildings: prefabricated, not of wood",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29065591.772350587,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 69.658347333359,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2238792562271026,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "940161",
      "hs_description": "Seats: with wooden frames, upholstered, (excluding medical, surgical, dental, veterinary or barber furniture)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14528437.869635811,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 3.28702562460531,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3656709410600834,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "854449",
      "hs_description": "Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 80 volts, not fitted with connectors",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23486235.559722196,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 54.032404341273946,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6351886130776696,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "300420",
      "hs_description": "Medicaments: containing antibiotics (other than penicillins, streptomycins or their derivatives), for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20011478.572351832,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8889825844558017,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "392321",
      "hs_description": "Ethylene polymers: sacks and bags (including cones), for the conveyance or packing of goods",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10043699.267088491,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 82.69859537717112,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1464152666838663,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
      "importer_iso3": "ISL",
      "hs_code": "240220",
      "hs_description": "Cigarettes: containing tobacco",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10714015.743941128,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 33.23118164065491,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.4209314447593351,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "BGR",
    "importer_iso3": "ISL",
    "distance_km": 3708,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 1,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 25458.933915999998,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 68383.7653366282,
    "importer_population": 372.295,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 11.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.9,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 3.3451067033212123,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 3.9412890495353543,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.5327533906060606,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 3.408535658929294
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ISL/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ISL/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ISL/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ISL/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/BGR-ISL/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}