{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.295Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Azerbaijan exports to Ukraine: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "AZE",
    "country_name": "Azerbaijan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "UKR",
    "country_name": "Ukraine"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
    "importer_iso3": "UKR",
    "all_history_lane_count": 128,
    "current_lane_count": 31,
    "current_product_count": 31,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1996,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 202941121.43279985,
    "attention_trade_usd": 98092741.06251952,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 90746162.30353773,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 7028082.235895928,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 105270512.96441035,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 5,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 15,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 12,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 19,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1385854685824757,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 5.415159189121579,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 2837.8191223300028,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 38.65197066610856,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 80.86894900773468,
    "top_product_hs6": "310210",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 78440742.72567755,
    "top_product_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "310210",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1873.83203125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.049799997359514236,
    "has_reported_fta": 1,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.061752943229119,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.003384217340996168,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.739184083655174,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 6.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 200085.537744,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 4567,
    "buyer_population_latest": 43814.583,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 4.388047577338883,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 8.285640541163119,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -3.37794288946095,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 22.714000000000002,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 10.852,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 48.335566675677946,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Watch",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 200085.537744,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 4567,
    "buyer_population_2024": 43814.583
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 26954545.83340294,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 26327057.302914333,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.3279506706100905,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 39865930.90884632,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 51.42570037416703,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 19946820.991238687,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -49.96524466756538,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.548892144311038
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 27357434.33114437,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 37.15185163169947,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.287926873349421
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 22615966.69192648,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.331550838523214,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.21765041053557
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 7033704.0582002,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -68.89938796774442,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -29.351415132038284
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 9594338.21293024,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.405201776221176,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -29.47985128563545
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 14899994.137872202,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 55.299863390176895,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -12.985763492321588
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 10242174.343187261,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -31.26054783367923,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 13.345084580109656
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 30466118.079166178,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 197.45752277133596,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 46.983087451818626
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 37524329.13374387,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.167411864671884,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 36.053258085865856
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 30308595.719709046,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -19.229480128256448,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.568077068631595
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 108320277.7443675,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 257.3912785207963,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 52.62682899094153
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 228632053.28297478,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 111.07040901661955,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 82.64511453378935
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 887791605.8446198,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 288.3058359913394,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 208.25850882193043
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 739501686.4434873,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.7032351314083,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 89.70399111105615
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 74999477.23789057,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -89.85810599045577,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -31.033152733600012
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 169081346.881953,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 125.4433672192734,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -42.46551613646679
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 41929489.24201798,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -75.20158786569652,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -61.5827033515167
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 25013760.616682358,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.343273746306906,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.65099233502805
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 38289617.699600115,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 53.07421497455176,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -39.04699651988059
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 407326176.16299254,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 963.8031942722857,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 113.37371369635791
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 399199432.5189282,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.9951439705196972,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 151.76980410116502
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 348027247.037905,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -12.818701960102818,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 108.69437264812434
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 325056977.7681202,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.600135324256085,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.244630962613052
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 518739742.1507698,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 59.58425064814743,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 9.123897471195441
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 435993229.63157666,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.95145037010548,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.800845320775762
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 208615442.38402593,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -52.15167846521142,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.74274102191696
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "export_value_usd": 212265427.86156943,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1.749623822585722,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -25.75909661461644
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "310210",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 192640980.3065679,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.5287463383984097,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 5561047625.233143,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8424053606192455,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "081070",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: persimmons, fresh",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 25555446.933188237,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9802521843913522,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "390110",
      "hs_description": "Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 98887242.13508584,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 28.497724195298336,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8986184016571459,
      "attention_level": "Stable",
      "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified",
      "risk_driver_labels": []
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "760511",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: (not alloyed), wire, maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 7mm",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 30777447.02747336,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.793680527024058,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "854460",
      "hs_description": "Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage exceeding 1000 volts",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 47177187.67627568,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3706123843781235,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "700529",
      "hs_description": "Glass: float glass and surface ground or polished glass, in sheets, non-wired, (other than coloured throughout the mass (body tinted), opacified, flashed or merely surface ground)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 53017544.218020916,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 70.2134360380828,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7045883619029963,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "999999",
      "hs_description": "Commodities not specified according to kind",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1573917815.0379264,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 96.73836291064806,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6756169641176348,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "081090",
      "hs_description": "Fruit, edible: fruits n.e.c. in heading no. 0801 to 0810, fresh",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17821280.53966431,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 35.5788233788472,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.062654573916043,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "UKR",
      "hs_code": "090230",
      "hs_description": "Tea, black: (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 11449394.055683188,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 4.676856491867831,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9409997068922594,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
    "importer_iso3": "UKR",
    "distance_km": 1875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 1,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": 2,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 200085.537744,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 4566.642520459455,
    "importer_population": 43814.583,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 6.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.5,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 54622.176471000006,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 5384.034998085797,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 4.061752943229119,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.74256830099617,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 0.003384217340996168,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": 6.739184083655174
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-UKR/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-UKR/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-UKR/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-UKR/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-UKR/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}