{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:57.254Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Azerbaijan exports to Bulgaria: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Azerbaijan to Bulgaria, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "AZE",
    "country_name": "Azerbaijan"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "BGR",
    "country_name": "Bulgaria"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "all_history_lane_count": 26,
    "current_lane_count": 12,
    "current_product_count": 12,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1999,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 575784460.2325413,
    "attention_trade_usd": 574735491.2307758,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 75099817.58820748,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 74158103.4875145,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 505103354.0316409,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 8,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 6,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 5,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 7,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.6802571763041403,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 10.270588143227773,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 7438.405433263183,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 85.61184972744881,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 97.35919394827611,
    "top_product_hs6": "271121",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 492939726.84828556,
    "top_product_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271121",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": 2220.84423828125,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.11694200336933136,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 12.008667116858236,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 12.616520079693485,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 14.326018014559386,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": -1.7094979348659,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 80271.119426,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 11635,
    "buyer_population_latest": 6899.125,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.593931268104285,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 11.189451881330982,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -0.5355909244541324,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 25.716,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 23.028,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 99.81781915383027,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 80271.119426,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 11635,
    "buyer_population_2024": 6899.125
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1314188.1135153817,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 608269.5372608223,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -53.71518498719834,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 3467968.7881827615,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 470.1368514688116,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 4733310.215293737,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.48652869722113,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 53.28599522220141
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 611407.9149300475,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -87.08286828624637,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.17168899587340913
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1143988.1129446619,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 87.10718082142395,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.90465697959095
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1051333.6734845447,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.099248446001916,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -39.43916301145814
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 1620092.0747147072,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 54.098752429860575,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 38.37879580634962
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 6003603.851933077,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 270.5717684589187,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 73.77881786637079
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 18983956.268210173,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 216.2093425284482,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 162.35059288268167
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 104253686.42581066,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 449.1673334730022,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 300.7288170584471
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 6620553.832390706,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -93.64957340179808,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.314377799181867
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 6241429.656616897,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.72647221625121,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.981457290989344
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 85621192.25447194,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 1271.8201912874242,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.3524075415332675
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 70622971.83055808,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.51694881722523,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 120.13235979654996
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 66358962.53439575,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.037708674158804,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 119.8898429660281
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 200879061.10975757,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 202.71579518084874,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 32.87740343627581
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 333119228.3629644,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 65.8307374211355,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 67.70701833015835
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 79958416.73760085,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -75.99705753086138,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 6.411410405055329
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 41990931.19966311,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -47.48403868792882,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -40.651882848964874
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 246274.4539468438,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -99.4135056144008,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -90.95781848357188
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 366511.4666634893,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.822364963033316,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -83.38854043107725
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 162134.0412550456,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -55.76290075423256,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -84.31180782387241
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 21419425.696725085,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13110.936784725654,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 343.0602815513148
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 45946164.02796954,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 114.50698388703513,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 400.48058044009645
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 619132.857254585,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -98.65248194195779,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 56.30392417665773
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 59949710.22564943,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 9582.850703721955,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 40.92663712615092
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 313859283.76315886,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 423.53761608154434,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 89.7413153310415
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 417905288.5232924,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.15052641190874,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 777.1987514401492
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "export_value_usd": 579942604.79053,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 38.773693637573146,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 113.07507118581421
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "271121",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: in gaseous state, natural gas",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1054011891.373243,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5473704861502953,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "270900",
      "hs_description": "Oils: petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 2824267714.6084523,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 82.22312525903851,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.4236766712408402,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 770571072.7794034,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 62.58243978178978,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.645472909453112,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "310210",
      "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 92492530.4074204,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 79.71567659613824,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9612004396401211,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "290511",
      "hs_description": "Alcohols: saturated monohydric, methanol (methyl alcohol)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 34518537.47413696,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0661134712983598,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "240120",
      "hs_description": "Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 60781070.87695684,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3980147921178434,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "240110",
      "hs_description": "Tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 29237278.561855856,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7439746813591754,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "760110",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed)",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 103606479.37759025,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 79.42919128666966,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0239993893971722,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "720221",
      "hs_description": "Ferro-alloys: ferro-silicon, containing by weight more than 55% of silicon",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 15414129.283853404,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "limited_history"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
      "importer_iso3": "BGR",
      "hs_code": "220860",
      "hs_description": "Vodka",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 24757143.815737285,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7695216549432127,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The lane has limited historical coverage",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "limited_history"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "AZE",
    "importer_iso3": "BGR",
    "distance_km": 2223,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 0,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 1,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 80271.119426,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 11634.971018208831,
    "importer_population": 6899.125,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 54622.176471000006,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 5384.034998085797,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 12.008667116858236,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 12.616520079693485,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 14.326018014559386,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": -1.7094979348659
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-BGR/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-BGR/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-BGR/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-BGR/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AZE-BGR/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}