{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:00.510Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Australia exports to Timor-Leste: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Australia to Timor-Leste, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "AUS",
    "country_name": "Australia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "TLS",
    "country_name": "Timor-Leste"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
    "importer_iso3": "TLS",
    "all_history_lane_count": 5,
    "current_lane_count": 4,
    "current_product_count": 4,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2022,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 2426289.6246283115,
    "attention_trade_usd": 2330793.357298727,
    "critical_trade_usd": 0,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 95496.26732958439,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 95496.26732958439,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 2426289.6246283115,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 2426289.6246283115,
    "critical_lane_count": 0,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 1,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 3,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 3,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 4,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 0.8180241766442877,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 44.557467419695655,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 9233.619785466872,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 96.06410272045682,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 98.94321963070689,
    "top_product_hs6": "271019",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 2330793.357298727,
    "top_product_description": "",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271019",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
    "distance_km": null,
    "shares_land_border": null,
    "shares_official_language": null,
    "common_spoken_language_score": null,
    "has_reported_fta": null,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": null,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": null,
    "buyer_population_latest": null,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": -1.6994746479390144,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": -3.140450416224372,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.4876961275140266,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer economy and income contracted",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 96.06410272045682,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 0,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_product_mix",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "buyer_macro_weakness"
    ],
    "attention_level": "High attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": null,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": null,
    "buyer_population_2024": null
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 52169383.02365794,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 51695388.86050266,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -0.908567699449947,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 22491481.79761469,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -56.49228626888407,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 13423292.377238823,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.31832807626567,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -36.396485127168866
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 20702717.63456851,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 54.22980482547655,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -26.290208267527003
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 34656658.42656361,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 67.40149307110971,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.502009212393242
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 26927071.89828316,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.303323168502253,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.117889175077423
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 32065951.879232284,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 19.084436660477632,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.701483094681068
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 47838459.01773123,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 49.18770912493669,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.343148669059943
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 26564216.553277656,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -44.471002831776666,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -0.45121571691544293
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 24365915.50211961,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -8.275422114366137,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -8.747200025135749
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 21956487.14429265,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -9.88851971360305,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -22.863151377014525
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 27091295.75493826,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 23.38629388618001,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.657063206117181
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 16713672.183634946,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -38.306117452546204,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.807893635929624
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 27505139.556884926,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 64.56670475933083,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.799562512156655
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 21393105.641002107,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -22.22142484768047,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -7.569631157086409
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 14816632.22953315,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -30.741087908547804,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.936322745752685
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 20251190.70635492,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.67877013232044,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.70183943304097
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 37440268.773371585,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 84.87934520128069,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.50961731681116
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 68746778.74548772,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 83.61721482721319,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 66.78908162686584
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 59368473.1886238,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -13.641810900819085,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 43.12047607962204
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 50196518.3423821,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.449201156143644,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.266827388663247
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "export_value_usd": 48515991.27130268,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -3.3478956839532725,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.968398546527492
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "hs_code": "271019",
      "hs_description": "",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 120751138.1666671,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 43.65686538866618,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7954187862021156,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "hs_code": "151190",
      "hs_description": "Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 16011054.764005741,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 51.51397340567745,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.676477377899188,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "hs_code": "851712",
      "hs_description": "Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10015648.572598165,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 73.69234307965654,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0277499321839763,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "TLS",
      "hs_code": "871120",
      "hs_description": "Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles: fitted with an auxiliary motor, reciprocating internal combustion piston engine, of cylinder capacity exceeding 50cc but not exceeding 250cc, with or without side-cars: side-cars",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 23035901.867203474,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 80.46091699477427,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3242125612250852,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "buyer_macro_weakness"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
    "importer_iso3": "TLS",
    "distance_km": 3782,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": null,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 1959.134744,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 1457.8251280811087,
    "importer_population": 1343.875,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 13,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 0.7,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 1542659.8999929999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 59934.12940890754,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": null,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-TLS/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-TLS/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-TLS/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-TLS/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-TLS/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}