{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:00.509Z", "seo": { "title": "Australia exports to Serbia: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Australia to Serbia, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "AUS", "country_name": "Australia" }, "importer": { "iso3": "SRB", "country_name": "Serbia" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "all_history_lane_count": 58, "current_lane_count": 21, "current_product_count": 21, "first_observed_last_year": 2007, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 6158084.318806749, "attention_trade_usd": 2427304.2757868785, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 1665087.9466984288, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 506856.62849547603, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 2427304.2757868785, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 1128854.1463481574, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 1, "high_volatility_lane_count": 11, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 8, "declining_demand_lane_count": 1, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 5, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.1205496448929757, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 6.834526859715297, "product_concentration_hhi": 2151.269973501273, "top1_product_share_pct": 39.41654823357821, "top3_product_share_pct": 70.30774934186343, "top_product_hs6": "760110", "top_product_trade_usd": 2427304.2757868785, "top_product_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed)", "top_attention_product_hs6": "760110", "top_attention_product_reason": "Buyer demand is declining in both recent and longer-term observations", "distance_km": null, "shares_land_border": null, "shares_official_language": null, "common_spoken_language_score": null, "has_reported_fta": null, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null, "buyer_biz_entry_days": null, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": null, "buyer_population_latest": null, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 10.836286255256834, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 12.018236663180426, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": -1.0551410583952703, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 39.41654823357821, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "declining_buyer_demand", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Declining buyer demand is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": null, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": null, "buyer_population_2024": null }, "history": [ { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 3238352.7084662803, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 7826488.555532664, "yoy_growth_pct": 141.68116508962285, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 6748673.095721215, "yoy_growth_pct": -13.77137974666206, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 5229848.635558142, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.50552721432063, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.324395066216237 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 5846469.750591935, "yoy_growth_pct": 11.790419914667094, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.264845270681798 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 12081324.304118572, "yoy_growth_pct": 106.64306529415258, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.422373218823655 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 7621895.646289282, "yoy_growth_pct": -36.911753592352895, "cagr_3y_pct": 13.376912569805421 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 5938940.741319733, "yoy_growth_pct": -22.08052934690722, "cagr_3y_pct": 0.5244629653624377 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 3842382.4586904286, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.301889241673315, "cagr_3y_pct": -31.74067077934718 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 3560084.885227844, "yoy_growth_pct": -7.346941031965826, "cagr_3y_pct": -22.41118513286625 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 4358313.009188271, "yoy_growth_pct": 22.42160368907442, "cagr_3y_pct": -9.800705251456954 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 4494453.765195846, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.1237030410748323, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.363965807538018 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 4661704.364853486, "yoy_growth_pct": 3.7212664407140217, "cagr_3y_pct": 9.402721324433028 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 5064120.9033992365, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.632390796373413, "cagr_3y_pct": 5.130456294925256 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 8158450.001660737, "yoy_growth_pct": 61.102986229741596, "cagr_3y_pct": 21.986071807712303 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 10856938.667590527, "yoy_growth_pct": 33.07599685455551, "cagr_3y_pct": 32.55238676452408 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 20124587.31749709, "yoy_growth_pct": 85.3615271639305, "cagr_3y_pct": 58.39481920717391 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 7076816.922919845, "yoy_growth_pct": -64.83497121569798, "cagr_3y_pct": -4.630369192818973 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "export_value_usd": 9719673.492322158, "yoy_growth_pct": 37.345272573645836, "cagr_3y_pct": -3.6212186599122176 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "760110", "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed)", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 14933223.720384816, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5445007260310641, "attention_level": "High attention", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer demand is declining in both recent and longer-term observations", "risk_driver_labels": [ "declining_buyer_demand", "limited_history" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "722540", "hs_description": "Steel, alloy: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, not in coils", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20437531.39308671, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.9126459484676278, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "851769", "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the transmission or reception of voice, images or other data (including wired/wireless networks), n.e.c. in item no. 8517.6", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 12326274.728254322, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 3.091306082299496, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "120991", "hs_description": "Seed: vegetable seed, of a kind used for sowing", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13055505.598007634, "current_below_peak_pct": 9.42872795080003, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7381047580395969, "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "No material risk condition is currently identified", "risk_driver_labels": [] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "847490", "hs_description": "Machines, for sorting, screening, separating, washing, crushing etc mineral substances, for agglomerating, shaping or moulding solid fuels, ceramic pastes etc, for forming foundry moulds of sand: parts", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 27440411.430880673, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.8343127176128209, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "300450", "hs_description": "Medicaments: containing vitamins or their derivatives, for therapeutic or prophylactic use, packaged for retail sale", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 18575135.665004678, "current_below_peak_pct": 58.15000561753158, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.735619015635253, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "870421", "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of goods, (of a gvw not exceeding 5 tonnes), n.e.c. in item no 8704.1", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 74825227.78586623, "current_below_peak_pct": 0, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.1748844017653608, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "842230", "hs_description": "Machinery: for filling, closing, sealing, capsuling or labelling bottles, cans, bags or other containers, machinery for aerating beverages", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 61270554.70548988, "current_below_peak_pct": 58.51396634244425, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5942695893645293, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "390950", "hs_description": "Polyurethanes: in primary forms", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 20484902.784070298, "current_below_peak_pct": 63.03396147586425, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.5181377723673897, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "unrecovered_drawdown" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "hs_code": "842290", "hs_description": "Machinery: parts of machinery of heading no. 8422", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 26348567.22406674, "current_below_peak_pct": 34.79274704900603, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.212351748798538, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "AUS", "importer_iso3": "SRB", "distance_km": 15400, "shares_land_border": 0, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": null, "shared_legal_system": 0, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 0, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 63068.134601000005, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 9214.993546391494, "importer_population": 6844.078, "importer_biz_entry_days": 7, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 2.3, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 1542659.8999929999, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 59934.12940890754, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 6.247825097777777, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null, "tariff_advantage_pp": null }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-SRB/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-SRB/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-SRB/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-SRB/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-SRB/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }