{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.483Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "Australia exports to Kenya: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from Australia to Kenya, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "AUS",
    "country_name": "Australia"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "KEN",
    "country_name": "Kenya"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
    "importer_iso3": "KEN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 81,
    "current_lane_count": 48,
    "current_product_count": 48,
    "first_observed_last_year": 1997,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 57569583.97292469,
    "attention_trade_usd": 48028543.48511498,
    "critical_trade_usd": 14975828.048514532,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 43589183.49094339,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 26869006.471214745,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 55094269.22805828,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 57569583.97292469,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 1,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 6,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 36,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 22,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 36,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 48,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.361433543135105,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 55.48733772082834,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 1682.529530908391,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 27.25591430757528,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 65.81915728025271,
    "top_product_hs6": "271113",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 15691116.474887945,
    "top_product_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, butanes",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "271113",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 12158.1279296875,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.06790000200271606,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.70580397151516,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.70580397151516,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 110347.079517,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2007.0000000000002,
    "buyer_population_latest": 54985.703,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 3.6939927181435905,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 1.6964619039059992,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.9642087608958247,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 19.871999999999996,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 6.416000000000001,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 83.42694209446273,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 26.013438025811947,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets",
      "market_access_friction"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Critical attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Tariff, distance or agreement conditions create market-access friction",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 110347.079517,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2007.0000000000002,
    "buyer_population_2024": 54985.703
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 31804749.528930586,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 31219215.3501225,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.8410274801110016,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 35371086.794663,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 13.299089672746067,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 29792413.681515533,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.771845364924463,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -2.1551654237112916
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 44921348.37611418,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 50.78116481708656,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 12.895578521676597
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 35805199.37231395,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.29357829483035,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 0.40744070944078725
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 45806817.280424,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 27.93342331126276,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 15.418336133455313
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 30675458.51585259,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.03298430873072,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -11.939848879771509
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 19968270.802080773,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -34.90473568060446,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -17.68769050857626
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 23594360.827984426,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 18.159259065766477,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.83969398845542
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 26631120.186281666,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 12.870699827119058,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.603423261365435
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 39234844.46603599,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 47.32705267969468,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 25.24983406804231
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 32950286.937200133,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -16.01779646221395,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 11.776454025735305
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 35887729.26907079,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.914770112530789,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 10.455034373317273
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 29075020.77622503,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.98339246199444,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -9.506781893803605
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 35342960.68328134,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 21.557817465711572,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.3641557439655125
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 59713886.256447636,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 68.9555291973452,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 18.49766305389837
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 59072756.93666239,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -1.0736687226013841,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 26.655018320254964
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 107521206.87593803,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 82.01487868802518,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 44.89844817095951
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 88736888.22544543,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -17.470338360474912,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.115057345514703
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 53028635.0508057,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.24059654190165,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -3.5339706411833705
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 42394966.4605014,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -20.052691494164222,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -26.67140083632239
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 63125371.168917574,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.89826892003866,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.731154826861633
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 59210790.6896553,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.201279147788652,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.744115101917167
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 50063000.37625613,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -15.449532436318869,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 5.6981840723068
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 55569418.85433206,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.998978160900474,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.160625618631331
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 203277140.20868742,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 265.8075689824142,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 50.85599044191169
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 164913793.95622167,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -18.872435047581526,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 48.792155840596465
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 119490207.16014826,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -27.543837120217873,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 29.072033714006906
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "export_value_usd": 66912629.8589771,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -44.00157849814704,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -30.953788803766013
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "271113",
      "hs_description": "Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons: liquefied, butanes",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 253830742.41484967,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 41.65200191205683,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.949060168834146,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "100199",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 569224044.244412,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 89.29647025128648,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2624517730042535,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "100790",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: grain sorghum, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 10448051.33950277,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 76.9929178621706,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.8297367809699799,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "760120",
      "hs_description": "Aluminium: unwrought, alloys",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 22329253.89657076,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 48.25339291156448,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.716915695629651,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "870324",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 45255403.22043838,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3072286722933149,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "870333",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity exceeding 2500cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 100978580.9431213,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.219300606771637,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "630900",
      "hs_description": "Clothing: worn, and other worn articles",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 201745174.93275627,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 42.48430895462986,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.40317960488645743,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "880230",
      "hs_description": "Aeroplanes and other aircraft: of an unladen weight exceeding 2000kg but not exceeding 15,000kg",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 66221612.10360672,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 84.40829253856742,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2828215798449807,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "870323",
      "hs_description": "Vehicles: spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity exceeding 1500cc but not exceeding 3000cc",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 176820105.52938628,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 55.07326602961273,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.2996923261851436,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
      "importer_iso3": "KEN",
      "hs_code": "851762",
      "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 152747305.66644198,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 34.66607441898224,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 2.2963970515354317,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "long_distance_without_fta"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "AUS",
    "importer_iso3": "KEN",
    "distance_km": 11510,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 1,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 1,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 1,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 1,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 110347.079517,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2006.832203582084,
    "importer_population": 54985.703,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 23,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 22.4,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 1542659.8999929999,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 59934.12940890754,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 27.70580397151516,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 27.70580397151516,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-KEN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-KEN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-KEN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-KEN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AUS-KEN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}