{
  "template": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile",
  "source": "api",
  "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:47:53.377Z",
  "seo": {
    "title": "United Arab Emirates exports to Iran: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks",
    "description": "Understand reported exports from United Arab Emirates to Iran, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning."
  },
  "publisher": {
    "name": "Yugalinks",
    "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com",
    "email": "support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  },
  "exporter": {
    "iso3": "ARE",
    "country_name": "United Arab Emirates"
  },
  "importer": {
    "iso3": "IRN",
    "country_name": "Iran"
  },
  "latestYear": 2024,
  "risk": {
    "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "all_history_lane_count": 639,
    "current_lane_count": 623,
    "current_product_count": 623,
    "first_observed_last_year": 2009,
    "latest_data_year": 2024,
    "current_trade_usd": 13279804480.805399,
    "attention_trade_usd": 11796154690.516582,
    "critical_trade_usd": 2305705021.514293,
    "high_volatility_trade_usd": 10828847877.297237,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 3202916007.256479,
    "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0,
    "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 11770085083.090332,
    "access_friction_trade_usd": 0,
    "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0,
    "critical_lane_count": 28,
    "high_attention_lane_count": 383,
    "high_volatility_lane_count": 403,
    "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 296,
    "declining_demand_lane_count": 0,
    "concentrated_market_lane_count": 483,
    "access_friction_lane_count": 0,
    "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.9890829786017383,
    "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 26.591514592725108,
    "product_concentration_hhi": 463.0229829745484,
    "top1_product_share_pct": 14.305462055278461,
    "top3_product_share_pct": 35.25940082549728,
    "top_product_hs6": "841191",
    "top_product_trade_usd": 1899737391.0167854,
    "top_product_description": "Turbines: parts of turbo-jets and turbo-propellers",
    "top_attention_product_hs6": "841191",
    "top_attention_product_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
    "distance_km": 1279.0364990234375,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "common_spoken_language_score": 0.015599998645484447,
    "has_reported_fta": 0,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 57.04679814121213,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 57.04679814121213,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null,
    "buyer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null,
    "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 2757,
    "buyer_population_latest": 85028.763,
    "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 6.431909337919595,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 5.360726244823533,
    "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 1.0166815769729887,
    "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": 39.459999999999994,
    "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": 40.714000000000006,
    "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient",
    "attention_trade_share_pct": 88.82777383934169,
    "critical_trade_share_pct": 17.362492232825826,
    "risk_driver_labels": [
      "high_volatility",
      "unrecovered_drawdown",
      "concentrated_buyer_markets"
    ],
    "attention_level": "Critical attention",
    "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure",
    "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 231547.57124000002,
    "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 2757,
    "buyer_population_2024": 85028.763
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "year": 1995,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 725178251.7027302,
      "yoy_growth_pct": null,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 968351286.4491351,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.53286370288004,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1997,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 521684153.15814954,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -46.12655960099742,
      "cagr_3y_pct": null
    },
    {
      "year": 1998,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 522660199.2014712,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 0.18709520644109023,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.34148263781558
    },
    {
      "year": 1999,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1018380195.8210644,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 94.84556072510635,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.6932991677656606
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1357101199.8349593,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 33.26076109922804,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 37.53129423733004
    },
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 1798559884.6084344,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 32.52953315693497,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 50.97388272618788
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 2331055955.1275015,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 29.606802368718288,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 31.789532622087215
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 3209914288.2592473,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 37.702155162709296,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 33.23768160307778
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 5735880774.416792,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 78.6926459499761,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 47.19455252788431
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8079848266.760618,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 40.86499675513486,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 51.33875917429638
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 4778430527.082613,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -40.85989774411461,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.18190385396536
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 7079491112.384573,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 48.155154129798184,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 7.267289925181553
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8707180370.04022,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 22.991613829534074,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 2.5238198002437873
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 4200864960.720903,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -51.75401470750172,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -4.203167760616688
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 13107877038.493795,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 212.02805043855483,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 22.793894234172974
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 17943394482.577213,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 36.89016482137415,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 27.25524400960275
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 19420310912.204872,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 8.230975644333771,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 66.58625019664419
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 13855607459.225294,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -28.654038949924278,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.8664263751072552
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 13068442258.662495,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -5.6812031004724535,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -10.028200644732754
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 10281487730.349161,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.325835728171693,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -19.102842680439714
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8083726555.291536,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -21.375906218029293,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -16.440593272520086
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 12512888094.663822,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 54.79108563454555,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -1.4376055120077336
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8299628407.016336,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -33.67136072641974,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -6.889020433660676
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 8546054964.937354,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.9691276022995705,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 1.8711844652830933
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 7992445327.475256,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -6.477955497986388,
      "cagr_3y_pct": -13.879335690469874
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 13086166349.478695,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 63.73169678737736,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 16.39060600267419
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 12792513851.441479,
      "yoy_growth_pct": -2.2439917864020886,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 14.392285762619728
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 14072270969.018373,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 10.00395334676687,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 20.752140597118498
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "export_value_usd": 14378045185.453648,
      "yoy_growth_pct": 2.172884654569751,
      "cagr_3y_pct": 3.187985937718385
    }
  ],
  "riskLanes": [
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "841191",
      "hs_description": "Turbines: parts of turbo-jets and turbo-propellers",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1900653646.2383502,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 5.179054190606778,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "100590",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: maize (corn), other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 3131836459.550966,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 8.166195719946854,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.9591631233830784,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "851712",
      "hs_description": "Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1366398461.1754298,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 66.16708789711794,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.7382971224972272,
      "attention_level": "Critical attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "unrecovered_drawdown",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "847130",
      "hs_description": "Data processing machines: portable, digital and automatic, weighing not more than 10kg, consisting of at least a central processing unit, a keyboard and a display",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 298222654.37136185,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 42.77107203309742,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.02823425578494,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "120190",
      "hs_description": "Soya beans: other than seed, whether or not broken",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1905549529.7367494,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 45.230112194815845,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.6019695176831175,
      "attention_level": "Watch",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "170113",
      "hs_description": "Sugars: cane sugar, raw, in solid form, as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 376444846.04596794,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 9.41774074085518,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3829162579929777,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "100199",
      "hs_description": "Cereals: wheat and meslin, other than durum wheat, other than seed",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 1673499599.121892,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 30.573683344770437,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.629032817138819,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "020230",
      "hs_description": "Meat: of bovine animals, boneless cuts, frozen",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 329254610.52535486,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 39.350212007621806,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.0831189536213728,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "851762",
      "hs_description": "Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines for the reception, conversion and transmission or regeneration of voice, images or other data, including switching and routing apparatus",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 222252062.86578375,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 1.413985930450431,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "Trade has varied substantially across reported years",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "high_volatility",
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    },
    {
      "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
      "importer_iso3": "IRN",
      "hs_code": "847170",
      "hs_description": "Data processing machines: storage units",
      "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 174846640.4701898,
      "current_below_peak_pct": 0,
      "lane_volatility_cv": 0.7743090745456678,
      "attention_level": "High attention",
      "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers",
      "risk_driver_labels": [
        "concentrated_buyer_market",
        "dominant_supplier"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "accessProfile": {
    "year": 2024,
    "exporter_iso3": "ARE",
    "importer_iso3": "IRN",
    "distance_km": 1214,
    "shares_land_border": 0,
    "shares_official_language": 0,
    "shares_ethnic_language": 0,
    "shared_religion": 0,
    "shared_legal_system": 0,
    "shared_colonial_history": 0,
    "has_fta": 0,
    "rta_coverage_ratio": null,
    "exporter_is_wto": 1,
    "importer_is_wto": 0,
    "exporter_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_is_eu": 0,
    "importer_gdp_million_usd": 231547.57124,
    "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 2723.167585538084,
    "importer_population": 85028.763,
    "importer_biz_entry_days": 72.5,
    "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 1.1,
    "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 358868.765175,
    "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 35918.90540545004,
    "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 57.04679814121213,
    "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 57.04679814121213,
    "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": null,
    "tariff_advantage_pp": null
  },
  "sourceAttribution": {
    "publisher": "OECD",
    "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D",
    "year": 2025,
    "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/",
    "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0",
    "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/",
    "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions",
    "accessed": "2026-08-29",
    "supportingSources": [
      {
        "publisher": "CEPII",
        "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows",
        "release": "202601",
        "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.",
        "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html",
        "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37",
        "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf",
        "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence",
        "accessed": "2026-08-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  "links": {
    "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ARE-IRN/risk",
    "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ARE-IRN/risk/index.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ARE-IRN/risk/index.md",
    "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ARE-IRN/risk/index.json",
    "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/ARE-IRN/risk/index.ld.json",
    "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/",
    "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/",
    "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources",
    "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology",
    "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors",
    "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact",
    "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com",
    "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks"
  }
}