{ "template": "Corridor pair risk profile", "pageType": "Corridor pair risk profile", "source": "api", "generatedAt": "2026-08-29T11:48:07.842Z", "seo": { "title": "Afghanistan exports to Tajikistan: Trade Route Risk | Yugalinks", "description": "Understand reported exports from Afghanistan to Tajikistan, the product routes that need a closer look, and the conditions that may affect planning." }, "publisher": { "name": "Yugalinks", "url": "https://www.yugalinks.com", "email": "support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" }, "exporter": { "iso3": "AFG", "country_name": "Afghanistan" }, "importer": { "iso3": "TJK", "country_name": "Tajikistan" }, "latestYear": 2024, "risk": { "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "all_history_lane_count": 8, "current_lane_count": 2, "current_product_count": 2, "first_observed_last_year": 2020, "latest_data_year": 2024, "current_trade_usd": 121321.19251585317, "attention_trade_usd": 0, "critical_trade_usd": 0, "high_volatility_trade_usd": 74595.0501086858, "unrecovered_drawdown_trade_usd": 74595.0501086858, "declining_demand_trade_usd": 0, "concentrated_market_trade_usd": 121321.19251585317, "access_friction_trade_usd": 0, "buyer_macro_weakness_trade_usd": 0, "critical_lane_count": 0, "high_attention_lane_count": 0, "high_volatility_lane_count": 1, "unrecovered_drawdown_lane_count": 1, "declining_demand_lane_count": 0, "concentrated_market_lane_count": 2, "access_friction_lane_count": 0, "trade_weighted_volatility_cv": 1.0639523991256552, "trade_weighted_below_peak_pct": 64.89463464101911, "product_concentration_hhi": 5263.837521035839, "top1_product_share_pct": 61.485589254275084, "top3_product_share_pct": 100, "top_product_hs6": "310210", "top_product_trade_usd": 74595.0501086858, "top_product_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution", "top_attention_product_hs6": "", "top_attention_product_reason": "", "distance_km": 459.2474060058594, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "common_spoken_language_score": 0.40918001532554626, "has_reported_fta": 0, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.54350616786207, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.525382681609194, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.2321921578544062, "tariff_advantage_pp": 7.293190523754789, "buyer_biz_entry_days": 7, "buyer_biz_entry_cost_pct": null, "buyer_gdp_mn_latest": 8746.270636, "buyer_gdp_pc_latest": 897, "buyer_population_latest": 9749.625, "buyer_gdp_5y_cagr_pct": 11.342641385471342, "buyer_gdp_pc_5y_cagr_pct": 9.016690878247392, "buyer_population_5y_cagr_pct": 2.133572839613729, "buyer_investment_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_savings_5y_avg_pct": null, "buyer_macro_resilience_label": "Buyer macro trend resilient", "attention_trade_share_pct": 0, "critical_trade_share_pct": 0, "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_product_mix", "concentrated_buyer_markets" ], "attention_level": "Stable", "primary_risk_reason": "Buyer-market concentration is the largest observed corridor exposure", "buyer_gdp_mn_2024": 8746.270636, "buyer_gdp_pc_2024": 897, "buyer_population_2024": 9749.625 }, "history": [ { "year": 2003, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1635697.3664804397, "yoy_growth_pct": null, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2004, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 3823107.9792440427, "yoy_growth_pct": 133.72954298204286, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2005, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 5557095.476451166, "yoy_growth_pct": 45.35544134827161, "cagr_3y_pct": null }, { "year": 2006, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 6009578.987662131, "yoy_growth_pct": 8.142446231640532, "cagr_3y_pct": 54.30512987752414 }, { "year": 2007, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 5244956.322432683, "yoy_growth_pct": -12.723398208081537, "cagr_3y_pct": 11.115617440304604 }, { "year": 2008, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 6217843.632982357, "yoy_growth_pct": 18.54900690761969, "cagr_3y_pct": 3.815925323713354 }, { "year": 2009, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 5695354.789090667, "yoy_growth_pct": -8.403055379523616, "cagr_3y_pct": -1.7741991089325504 }, { "year": 2010, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1567941.387903508, "yoy_growth_pct": -72.46982065266826, "cagr_3y_pct": -33.135441291720355 }, { "year": 2011, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 5312138.298882135, "yoy_growth_pct": 238.79699457292767, "cagr_3y_pct": -5.112313289381665 }, { "year": 2012, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 198790.34272460506, "yoy_growth_pct": -96.25780935021142, "cagr_3y_pct": -67.3192887567367 }, { "year": 2013, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 337394.39386196784, "yoy_growth_pct": 69.7237346833183, "cagr_3y_pct": -40.07574004468879 }, { "year": 2014, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 217691.29534029984, "yoy_growth_pct": -35.47868627913242, "cagr_3y_pct": -65.5234423416504 }, { "year": 2015, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 2801669.9547509532, "yoy_growth_pct": 1186.9921832985194, "cagr_3y_pct": 141.55010471643138 }, { "year": 2016, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 838212.7456146716, "yoy_growth_pct": -70.08167417460199, "cagr_3y_pct": 35.437459689903086 }, { "year": 2017, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1292622.1399268901, "yoy_growth_pct": 54.211701825053325, "cagr_3y_pct": 81.08265032863677 }, { "year": 2018, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 2252324.156906368, "yoy_growth_pct": 74.24459069173597, "cagr_3y_pct": -7.016767367819321 }, { "year": 2019, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1686060.7808788994, "yoy_growth_pct": -25.14129124314183, "cagr_3y_pct": 26.233024743300206 }, { "year": 2020, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 2434152.2161260718, "yoy_growth_pct": 44.36918548435791, "cagr_3y_pct": 23.488177412677793 }, { "year": 2021, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 3641730.465878819, "yoy_growth_pct": 49.609808365829956, "cagr_3y_pct": 17.370503648113278 }, { "year": 2022, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 4620504.094363936, "yoy_growth_pct": 26.87660818546933, "cagr_3y_pct": 39.9389822300366 }, { "year": 2023, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 4116778.064147855, "yoy_growth_pct": -10.901971298554269, "cagr_3y_pct": 19.143377486992797 }, { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "export_value_usd": 1717586.796779317, "yoy_growth_pct": -58.27837279504049, "cagr_3y_pct": -22.15985590577444 } ], "riskLanes": [ { "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "hs_code": "310210", "hs_description": "Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 13200427.798008911, "current_below_peak_pct": 94.61463623929299, "lane_volatility_cv": 1.3378114148797302, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "Current trade remains more than 50% below its historical peak", "risk_driver_labels": [ "high_volatility", "unrecovered_drawdown", "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] }, { "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "hs_code": "240220", "hs_description": "Cigarettes: containing tobacco", "buyer_imports_latest_usd": 17038364.47712315, "current_below_peak_pct": 17.44871049142787, "lane_volatility_cv": 0.6267554479012577, "attention_level": "Watch", "primary_risk_reason": "The buyer market is concentrated among relatively few suppliers", "risk_driver_labels": [ "concentrated_buyer_market", "dominant_supplier" ] } ], "accessProfile": { "year": 2024, "exporter_iso3": "AFG", "importer_iso3": "TJK", "distance_km": 446, "shares_land_border": 1, "shares_official_language": 0, "shares_ethnic_language": 0, "shared_religion": 0, "shared_legal_system": 1, "shared_colonial_history": 0, "has_fta": 0, "rta_coverage_ratio": null, "exporter_is_wto": 1, "importer_is_wto": 1, "exporter_is_eu": 0, "importer_is_eu": 0, "importer_gdp_million_usd": 8746.270636000001, "importer_gdp_per_capita_usd": 897.0879019449467, "importer_population": 9749.625, "importer_biz_entry_days": 7, "importer_biz_entry_cost_pct": 17.5, "exporter_gdp_million_usd": 20116.137326, "exporter_gdp_per_capita_usd": 504.9811021476211, "avg_applied_tariff_pct": 5.54350616786207, "avg_mfn_tariff_pct": 8.525382681609194, "avg_preferential_tariff_pct": 1.2321921578544062, "tariff_advantage_pp": 7.293190523754789 }, "sourceAttribution": { "publisher": "OECD", "dataset": "Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D", "year": 2025, "citation": "OECD (2025), Balanced international merchandise trade statistics (BIMTS) - HS2017-6D, OECD Data Explorer (accessed on 2026-08-29)", "sourceUrl": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/", "dataflowUrl": "https://sdmx.oecd.org/sti-public/rest/dataflow/OECD.SDD.TPS/DSD_BIMTS_6D@DF_BIMTS_HS2017_6D/1.0", "termsUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/termsandconditions/", "terms": "OECD Terms & Conditions", "accessed": "2026-08-29", "supportingSources": [ { "publisher": "CEPII", "dataset": "BACI bilateral trade flows", "release": "202601", "citation": "Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010), BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version, CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23.", "sourceUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html", "datasetUrl": "https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37", "licenseUrl": "https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf", "license": "Etalab 2.0 Open Licence", "accessed": "2026-08-29" } ] }, "links": { "canonical": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AFG-TJK/risk", "html": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AFG-TJK/risk/index.html", "markdown": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AFG-TJK/risk/index.md", "json": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AFG-TJK/risk/index.json", "jsonLd": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/corridor/AFG-TJK/risk/index.ld.json", "home": "https://www.yugalinks.com/", "tradeHub": "https://www.yugalinks.com/trade/", "dataSources": "https://www.yugalinks.com/data-sources", "methodology": "https://www.yugalinks.com/methodology", "workspace": "https://www.yugalinks.com/app/corridors", "contact": "https://www.yugalinks.com/contact", "email": "mailto:support@yugalinks.com", "linkedin": "https://in.linkedin.com/company/yugalinks" } }